806
FXUS66 KMTR 151144
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
444 AM PDT SAT MAR 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 120 AM PDT SAT MAR 15 2025
A BREAK IN THE RAIN TODAY BEFORE LIGHT RAIN COMES THROUGH THE REGION
ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE STORM TRACK THEN SHIFTS NORTHWARD WITH
THE TAIL END OF THE SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE NORTH BAY ON WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL TO
AVERAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM PDT SAT MAR 15 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A
PATCHWORK OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. RADAR
RETURNS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE BAY AREA, BUT THEY SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE INTO THE REST OF THE
DAY, BUT THE QUESTION IS WILL THEY CLEAR OUT SOON ENOUGH TO CAUSE
AIR TEMPERATURES TO DIP VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS IT STANDS,
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS, INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND THE BAYSHORE.
SHOULD THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP MORE THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
THE DAY SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL FOR MOST OF THE REGION AS WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT AND THE SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR, BRINGING A BREAK FORM THE
MULTIPLE RAIN SYSTEMS OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK. THE NORTH BAY COULD SEE
THE LOW CLOUDS STICKING AROUND, AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS, ACCUMULATING
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH, WHERE TERRAIN FACTORS FAVOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS, INTO THE MIDDLE 50S AT
THE PACIFIC COAST AND DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 AM PDT SAT MAR 15 2025
THE STORM DOOR REMAINS OPEN... WITH A LITTLE TWIST. A NEW FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL START COMING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY, STARTING WITH
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH BAY IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE BAND COMES
THROUGH THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY. RAIN TOTALS
FROM THIS SYSTEM RANGE FROM 0.5-1" IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS, WITH UP
TO 2" EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL RANGES AND THE MAYACAMAS, TO AROUND
0.25-0.5" IN THE BAY AREA AND MONTEREY BAY REGIONS, WITH UP TO 1" IN
THE SANTA CRUZ AND SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAIN RANGES, AND 0.1-0.25" IN THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON SUNDAY,
WITH A WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM ON SUNDAY FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH BAY, WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 40-
45 MILES PER HOUR. ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTH BAY, AND IN THE COAST AND
RIDGELINES ACROSS THE BAY AREA, WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 35-40 MILES
PER HOUR, AND DEPENDING ON HOW FORECAST TRENDS EVOLVE, THE WIND
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO THOSE AREAS AS WELL.
AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT ON MONDAY, THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH, BRINGING MOST OF THE IMPACTS TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THUS, A SYSTEM ARRIVING WEDNESDAY IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO BRING MINOR IMPACTS TO THE NORTH BAY WITH UP TO A THIRD
OF AN INCH IN THE COASTAL RANGES, AND SIGNIFICANTLY LESS (UP TO
0.2") IN THE VALLEYS AND BAY AREA AND VIRTUALLY NOTHING FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE HEADING TOWARDS THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, AND ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST IS A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE AT THIS POINT, ALL INDICATIONS
POINT TO THE GREATEST IMPACTS BEING CONFINED TO THE NORTH BAY.
THROUGHOUT ALL OF THIS, TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL TO NEAR THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE INLAND BAY AREA AND CENTRAL
COAST WARM TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE (MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S) ON
SUNDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM KNOCKS TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN ON MONDAY,
BEFORE A MORE SUSTAINED PERIOD OF SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SETS
UP ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK INTO THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.
CPC OUTLOOKS SUGGEST A LEAN TOWARDS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES, AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES, INTO THE LAST WEEK OF MARCH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 428 AM PDT SAT MAR 15 2025
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY, WIND SPEEDS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAVE DIMINISHED. THIS IS A RELATIVELY WEAK FEATURE,
HOWEVER, AND THERE ARE STILL MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS ACROSS THE
REGION. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH, THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY, BUT REMAIN GENTLE. LOW VFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUTSIDE OF THE NORTH BAY, WHERE MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND ALL DAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN BACK TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY, OUTSIDE
OF THE CURRENT TAF WINDOW.
VICINITY OF SFO...GENTLE WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER LIFTING FROM HIGH MVFR IN THE
MID-MORNING, THERE IS AN 80% CHANCE THAT THE CEILINGS REMAIN IN
THE VFR CATEGORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...LOW VFR CEILINGS AND WEAK DRAINAGE FLOW
IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SCATTERED MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A GENTLE ONSHORE BREEZE FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, THE DIURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW SHOULD RETURN, BUT DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM PDT SAT MAR 15 2025
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO A GENTLE SW
BREEZE TODAY, ALLOWING ROUGH SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE TO A STRONG
BREEZE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE
NORTHERN WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE MORE ROUGH SEAS
LASTING THROUGH MONDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ502>504.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR MRY BAY-
SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR PT
ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT
REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT REYES
TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...DIALH
LONG TERM....DIALH
AVIATION...FLYNN
MARINE...FLYNN
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