932
FXUS66 KMTR 160833
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
133 AM PDT SUN MAR 16 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 132 AM PDT SUN MAR 16 2025
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THIS MORNING, WITH STEADY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING INTO THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE BAY AREA
ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN COOL TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM PDT SUN MAR 16 2025
PATCHY LOW STRATUS COVERS THE BAY AREA, WITH LIGHT SHOWERS REPORTED
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY. THE SHORT TERM WEATHER FORECAST IS DOMINATED
BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
AROUND 900 MILES WEST OF CAPE MENDOCINO, EXPECTED TO MOVE DUE EAST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, CAUSING WINDS TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE DAY. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS HAS BEEN
EXTENDED TO COVER THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND COAST; IT IS STILL VALID
FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM TODAY. IN ADDITION, A SECOND WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CITY OF SAN FRANCISCO, THE SAN MATEO PENINSULA,
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS, AND THE EAST BAY, VALID FROM 5 PM THIS
EVENING TO 2 AM MONDAY MORNING. IN BOTH CASES, STRONG SOUTHERLY
GUSTS UP TO 45 TO 50 MILES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR GUSTS UP TO 60 MILES PER HOUR IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH PASSES AND GAPS. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL COAST, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND AT THE
RIDGELINES, BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE REGION AT THIS TIME.
RAIN INTENSITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THROUGH THE DAY,
AND THE MAIN RAIN BAND WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, PASSING
THROUGH THE BAY AREA IN THE EVENING HOURS AND THE CENTRAL COAST LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF SONOMA COUNTY, MEANING
THAT THERE IS AT LEAST A 5% PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE. RAIN TOTALS IN THE RISK AREA RANGE BETWEEN 0.75" TO
1" IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND 1.5-3" IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 4" POSSIBLE IN THE MAYACAMAS. ELSEWHERE IN
THE REGION, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE GENERALLY BENEFICIAL, WITH
TOTALS RANGING FROM 0.25" TO 0.5" IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE BAY
AREA AND CENTRAL COAST, WITH TOTALS AS HIGH AS 0.75" IN THE NORTH
BAY VALLEYS AND COASTAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY, AND UP TO 2" POSSIBLE IN
THE COASTAL RANGES.
CHILLY LOWS PERSIST IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN REGIONS OF MONTEREY
COUNTY WHERE THIS MORNING'S LOWS DIP IN TO THE MID 30S. ELSEWHERE,
LOWS THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE
INLAND VALLEYS, AND THE MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST, THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS, THE BAYSHORE, AND THE COAST, AND INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM PDT SUN MAR 16 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY, WITH A CHANCE
THAT SOME OF THEM COULD BRING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. THE
SPC HAS PLACED THE BAY AREA AND INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST IN A GENERAL
RISK FOR NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER INTO THE
BAY AREA THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS, WITH 10-20% PROBABILITIES FOR
THUNDER CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE
EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTS INCLUDE SMALL HAIL, LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, AND LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTS.
A NEW STORM SYSTEM DOES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY, BUT BECAUSE THE STORM
TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE IMPACTS WITH ONLY MINOR
IMPACTS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH BAY, WITH UP TO A HALF OF AN INCH IN
THE COASTAL RANGES, AND SIGNIFICANTLY LESS (UP TO 0.3") IN THE
VALLEYS AND BAY AREA AND VIRTUALLY NOTHING FOR THE CENTRAL COAST.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE HEADING TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS
REMAINS LOW, BUT INDICATIONS FROM THE MODEL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS POINT
TO THE GREATEST IMPACTS BEING CONFINED TO THE NORTH BAY.
THROUGHOUT ALL OF THIS, TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL TO NEAR THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE INCOMING SYSTEM KNOCKS
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN ON MONDAY, WITH THE INLAND VALLEYS DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 50S WHILE COASTAL REGIONS SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S. AFTERWARDS, THE TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB, AND BY
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH THE INLAND VALLEYS REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70, WHILE THE PACIFIC COAST SEES HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM PDT SAT MAR 15 2025
VFR/MVFR CONTINUES ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH THE NORTH BAY TERMINALS
AND KHAF EXPERIENCING MVFR CEILINGS. WENT PESSIMISTIC FOR KSTS
WITH -SHRA INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS CURRENT WEATHER OB AND RADAR
SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH OUR
AREA, EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO BUILD OVER THE REMAINING TERMINALS
STARTING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EVENING. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL ALSO START TOWARDS THE MID MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
RELATIVELY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREDOMINATELY TURN TO A
S/SE/SW DIRECTION AND WILL BUILD TO GUSTY AND STRONG WINDS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR CURRENTLY BUT STRATUS IS MOVING IN FROM THE
COAST. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING BUT THERE
IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. S/SW WINDS WILL BUILD TO STRONG
AND GUSTY BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO
REMAIN BREEZY TO STRONG THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR MAY
RETURN TOWARDS 09Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW, AS MVFR MAY PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. NOT BUYING THE OB
FROM KMRY OR KSNS. JUST WENT OUTSIDE AND THE AIRFIELD LOOKS
CRYSTAL CLEAR WITH NO CIGS SEEN. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF HAZE,
BUT NOT A CIGS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BUILD
TOWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 910 PM PDT SAT MAR 15 2025
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO A GENTLE SOUTHWEST BREEZE, ALONG
WITH ROUGH SEAS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE TO A STRONG BREEZE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE MORE
ROUGH SEAS LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 923 PM PDT SAT MAR 15 2025
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS MODERATE PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL BUILDS TO SUPPORT SNEAKER
WAVES AND HAZARDOUS SURF. AS ALWAYS, PLEASE REMEMBER TO STAY OFF OF
ROCKS AND JETTIES, KEEP PETS ON A LEASH, AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON
THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
CAZ006-508>510-512-515.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR CAZ502>506.
PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-
PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR MRY BAY-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...DIALH
LONG TERM....DIALH
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...SO
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