590
FXUS66 KMTR 161953
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1253 PM PDT SUN MAR 16 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 1252 PM PDT SUN MAR 16 2025
RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH BAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL RAIN
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEING OVER
THE NORTH BAY. LIGHT RAIN IS AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BAY AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM PDT SUN MAR 16 2025
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THIS ACTIVITY SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE BAY
AREA AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, RAIN
RATES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL TERRAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTH BAY. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES, WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WITH GUSTS AS STRONG AS 50 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BAY AREA. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY UNTIL 11 PM SUNDAY AND PARTS OF THE BAY AREA
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND THE RIDGELINES, BUT
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE
AREAS.
IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF COLDER
AIR FROM THE NORTH SETTLING INTO THE REGION MAKING FOR A MORE
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE HREF INDICATES THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE MUCAPE VALUES EXCEED 250 J/KG. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR STRONGER RAIN SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND
LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS.
WHEN ALL SAID AND DONE BY MONDAY, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM 1.00-2.00" IN THE COASTAL RANGES (LOCALLY UP TO 2.50" IN
THE MAYACAMAS) AND 0.50-1.00" IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. IN SAN
FRANCISCO AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST
EXPECTING 0.25-0.50" WITH LESS THAN 0.25" IN THE SOUTHERN SALINAS
VALLEY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM PDT SUN MAR 16 2025
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
CHILLY TO COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY WEDNESDAY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS SET TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING GENERALLY BENEFICIAL RAIN TO THE BAY
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE UP TO 0.50"
IN FAR NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY, 0.20-0.40" IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS,
AND LESS THAN 0.20" IN AREAS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. A TRACE TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST
WHILE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST SEE LITTLE TO NO
RAINFALL.
A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKENDED AND THE FOLLOWING WEEK. BY
SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WARMING TREND IS INDICATED IN THE 7-9 DAY
MEAN CLUSTERS, THUS INCREASING CONFIDENCE. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1038 AM PDT SUN MAR 16 2025
CURRENTLY A MIXED BAG ACROSS THE BOARD WITH MVFR-VFR AT THE
TERMINALS. SO FAR STS IS THE ONLY TERMINAL THAT HAS GOTTEN IN ON THE
RAIN ACTIVITY WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THIS
EVENING. ALL TERMINALS CAN EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES, PARTICULARLY IN THE
FORM OF MVFR CONDITIONS, STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND
EVENTUAL RAINFALL. THERE'S ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW WHICH WOULD POSE THE RISK OF LIGHTNING, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL, AND PEA SIZED HAIL.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY MVFR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, RAIN AND LOW-END MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS SAME TIMEFRAME AS WELL. DIURNAL
WINDS WILL RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...LATER ONSET AND SUBSEQUENT CLEARING OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND RAIN.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY VFR WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
MRY AND VFR WITH DRAINAGE FLOW AT SNS. MRY WILL REMAIN IN A
SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME WHILE SNS BEING MORE TERRAIN BLOCKED WILL
ASSUME DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT IS ON THE
DOORSTEP. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 AM PDT SUN MAR 16 2025
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
IS SLATED TO BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS,
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. TUESDAY SEAS ABATE AND WINDS DIMINISH TO
BECOME MODERATE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING A FRESH BREEZE, ROUGH SEAS, AND RENEWED CHANCES
FOR RAIN.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 445 AM PDT SUN MAR 15 2025
IF YOU'RE THINKING OF HITTING THE BEACHES BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES
USE CAUTION TODAY. AN ENERGETIC SURF ZONE WILL DEVELOP AS A
MODERATE PERIOD SWELL WILL CREATE INCREASE SHORE BREAK WITH LOW
END SNEAKER WAVE THREAT. AS ALWAYS, PLEASE REMEMBER TO STAY OFF
OF ROCKS AND JETTIES, KEEP PETS ON A LEASH, AND NEVER TURN YOUR
BACK ON THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
CAZ006-508>510-512-515.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ502>506.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10
NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10
NM-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR MRY BAY-PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-
10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...SARMENT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
X.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page