198
FXUS66 KMTR 170030
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
530 PM PDT SUN MAR 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 1252 PM PDT SUN MAR 16 2025
RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH BAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL RAIN
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEING OVER
THE NORTH BAY. LIGHT RAIN IS AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BAY AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM PDT SUN MAR 16 2025
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THIS ACTIVITY SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE BAY
AREA AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, RAIN
RATES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL TERRAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTH BAY. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES, WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WITH GUSTS AS STRONG AS 50 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BAY AREA. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY UNTIL 11 PM SUNDAY AND PARTS OF THE BAY AREA
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND THE RIDGELINES, BUT
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE
AREAS.
IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF COLDER
AIR FROM THE NORTH SETTLING INTO THE REGION MAKING FOR A MORE
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE HREF INDICATES THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE MUCAPE VALUES EXCEED 250 J/KG. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR STRONGER RAIN SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND
LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS.
WHEN ALL SAID AND DONE BY MONDAY, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM 1.00-2.00" IN THE COASTAL RANGES (LOCALLY UP TO 2.50" IN
THE MAYACAMAS) AND 0.50-1.00" IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. IN SAN
FRANCISCO AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST
EXPECTING 0.25-0.50" WITH LESS THAN 0.25" IN THE SOUTHERN SALINAS
VALLEY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM PDT SUN MAR 16 2025
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
CHILLY TO COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY WEDNESDAY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS SET TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING GENERALLY BENEFICIAL RAIN TO THE BAY
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE UP TO 0.50"
IN FAR NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY, 0.20-0.40" IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS,
AND LESS THAN 0.20" IN AREAS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. A TRACE TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST
WHILE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST SEE LITTLE TO NO
RAINFALL.
A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKENDED AND THE FOLLOWING WEEK. BY
SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WARMING TREND IS INDICATED IN THE 7-9 DAY
MEAN CLUSTERS, THUS INCREASING CONFIDENCE. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 PM PDT SUN MAR 16 2025
VFR PREVAILS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS
WILL EASE SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT, THEN INCREASE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, HOWEVER
WILL HOVER NEAR MVFR AT TIMES WITH ANY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN IN
VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY MVFR WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. WINDS
WILL EASE SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET BUT REMAIN BREEZY WITH SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF KSFO/KOAK.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY VFR, HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET WHEN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF TWO COLD FRONTS, THE FIRST
OCCURS WITH THE TIMING OF THE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING AND
THEN A SECOND COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM PDT SUN MAR 16 2025
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AS A COLD
FRONT IS BRINGING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS,
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW.
TUESDAY SEAS ABATE AND WINDS DIMINISH TO BECOME MODERATE. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A FRESH
BREEZE, ROUGH SEAS, AND RENEWED CHANCES FOR RAIN.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 236 PM PDT SUN MAR 16 2025
A MODERATE PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL IS BRINGING A MINOR RISK FOR
SNEAKER WAVES ALONG WITH IT. IF RAIN AND STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS PELTING YOU WITH SAND ISN'T REASON ENOUGH TO STAY AWAY FROM
THE BEACH, PLEASE REMEMBER TO STAY OFF OF ROCKS AND JETTIES, KEEP
PETS ON A LEASH, AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
SARMENT
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ006-508>510-512-515.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ502>506.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-
10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-
10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-
10 NM-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR MRY BAY-PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...SARMENT
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