077
FXUS66 KMTR 170538
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1038 PM PDT SUN MAR 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 1252 PM PDT SUN MAR 16 2025
RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH BAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL RAIN
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEING OVER
THE NORTH BAY. LIGHT RAIN IS AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BAY AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 928 PM PDT SUN MAR 16 2025
RAIN CONTINUES ITS GRADUAL TREK ACROSS THE BAY AREA DOWN TO THE
CENTRAL COAST. OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS THE NORTH BAY HAS SEEN UP TO
0.5" ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND BETWEEN 0.5"-1" ACROSS THE COASTAL
MOUNTAIN RANGES. RAIN TOTALS ARE GENERALLY LOWER ACROSS THE REST OF
THE BAY AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING IN AT LESS THAN 0.1". THE
EXCEPTION IS THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS WHERE STATIONS ARE
REPORTING AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL PASSING THROUGH THE NORTH BAY AND WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE BAY AREA OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL PICK UP
OVER THE BAY AREA AND THE CENTRAL COAST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTH WITH RAIN RATES EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE. STRONG WINDS HAVE REACHED THE NORTH BAY WITH PEAK GUSTS
ACROSS THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS RANGING FROM 40 TO 60 MPH. ACROSS THE
VALLEYS, GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BETWEEN 25 TO 40 MPH. GUSTS
HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP ACROSS THE REST OF THE BAY AREA WITH GUSTS
ACROSS THE SAN MATEO PENINSULA AND EAST BAY OBSERVED BETWEEN 40
TO 50 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH BAY
THROUGH 11 PM TONIGHT AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BAY AREA (SOUTH
OF THE GOLDEN GATE) UNTIL 2 AM MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM PDT SUN MAR 16 2025
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THIS ACTIVITY SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE BAY
AREA AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, RAIN
RATES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL TERRAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTH BAY. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES, WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WITH GUSTS AS STRONG AS 50 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BAY AREA. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY UNTIL 11 PM SUNDAY AND PARTS OF THE BAY AREA
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND THE RIDGELINES, BUT
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE
AREAS.
IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF COLDER
AIR FROM THE NORTH SETTLING INTO THE REGION MAKING FOR A MORE
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE HREF INDICATES THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE MUCAPE VALUES EXCEED 250 J/KG. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR STRONGER RAIN SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND
LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS.
WHEN ALL SAID AND DONE BY MONDAY, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM 1.00-2.00" IN THE COASTAL RANGES (LOCALLY UP TO 2.50" IN
THE MAYACAMAS) AND 0.50-1.00" IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. IN SAN
FRANCISCO AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST
EXPECTING 0.25-0.50" WITH LESS THAN 0.25" IN THE SOUTHERN SALINAS
VALLEY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM PDT SUN MAR 16 2025
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
CHILLY TO COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY WEDNESDAY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS SET TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING GENERALLY BENEFICIAL RAIN TO THE BAY
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE UP TO 0.50"
IN FAR NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY, 0.20-0.40" IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS,
AND LESS THAN 0.20" IN AREAS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. A TRACE TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST
WHILE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST SEE LITTLE TO NO
RAINFALL.
A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKENDED AND THE FOLLOWING WEEK. BY
SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WARMING TREND IS INDICATED IN THE 7-9 DAY
MEAN CLUSTERS, THUS INCREASING CONFIDENCE. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM PDT SUN MAR 16 2025
GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS HAVE EASED SOMEWHAT BUT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THEN INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
WILL HOVER BETWEEN MVFR/VFR, BECOMING MVFR WHEN RAIN IS IMPACTING
THE TERMINALS. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
VICINITY OF SFO...CEILINGS WILL HOVER BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. WINDS
EASED SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET BUT REMAIN BREEZY WITH SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF KSFO/KOAK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
MUCH OF MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE, BECOMING STRONG AGAIN LATER
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY VFR, WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS INTO
MVFR POSSIBLE WHEN RAIN PASSES OVER THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
REAMIN BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BECOMING GUSTY
ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 928 PM PDT SUN MAR 16 2025
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS EASE SLIGHTLY
BECOMING MODERATE BY TUESDAY, WITH SEAS ABATING FOR A SHORT TIME
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF ROUGH SEAS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 236 PM PDT SUN MAR 16 2025
A MODERATE PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL IS BRINGING A MINOR RISK FOR
SNEAKER WAVES ALONG WITH IT. IF RAIN AND STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS PELTING YOU WITH SAND ISN'T REASON ENOUGH TO STAY AWAY FROM
THE BEACH, PLEASE REMEMBER TO STAY OFF OF ROCKS AND JETTIES, KEEP
PETS ON A LEASH, AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
SARMENT
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ006-508>510-512-515.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ502>506.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-
10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-
10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-
10 NM-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR MRY BAY-PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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