577
FXUS66 KMTR 131135
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
435 AM PDT SUN APR 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 310 AM PDT SUN APR 13 2025
QUIET WEATHER IS ON TAP WITH A WARMING TREND STARTING TODAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. FOR MIDWEEK TO LATE
WEEK, A BRIEF COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM PDT SUN APR 13 2025
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL START UP A WARMING TREND TODAY
WHICH WILL THEN HOLD FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WARM INTO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST WITH INLAND AREAS WARMING
INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM PDT SUN APR 13 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING WEST OF SOUTHER CA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER ACROSS SOUTHERN CA MID TO LATE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN, IN ALMOST AN INSIDE SLIDER TYPE FASHION DURING
THIS TIME WHILE AN EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH BUILDS AND TRIES TO NUDGE
EAST. AT THIS TIME, THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLES FAVOR DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. THE SIGNAL FAVORS SHOWERS OR
STORMS OVER THE KLAMATH, NORTH COASTAL, AND SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS
TUE AND WED AFTERNOONS, WHILE FOR THU AND FRI THE SIERRA NEVADA
REMAIN FAVORED BUT NOW INCLUDE THE FAR SOUTHERN COASTAL RANGE.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE CURRENTLY MORE BULLISH THAN THE NBM,
RESULTING IN A DEEPER DIVE OF THE INGREDIENTS. IN TERMS OF
CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS, PWATS SEEM TO BE REASONABLE BETWEEN 0.5-
0.75" WHILE LIFT AND CAPE MIGHT BE A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. AT THIS POINT, OPTED TO NOT ADD ANY POP OR
MENTION OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE
VARIABILITY BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ONCE WE
GET CLOSER TO THE CAM RANGE, WE'LL GET BETTER INSIGHT ON TIMING AND
POTENTIAL SINCE THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGHS WILL BE IMPORTANT.
OUTSIDE OF THAT, DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 426 AM PDT SUN APR 13 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWING SOME DENSE BUT LOCALIZED MARINE STRATUS
COVERAGE ALONG THE SF PENINSULA AND MONTEREY BAY AREAS. EXPECTING
THESE IFR CIGS TO LAST UNTIL SUNRISE, THEN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, SO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. SLIGHT NE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS THIS
MORNING, BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 4-5 KTS. LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, ONSHORE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AND RESULT IN BREEZY NW WINDS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR CIGS DUE TO MARINE STRATUS THIS
MORNING, GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AFTER SKIES CLEAR.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM PDT SUN APR 13 2025
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING,
WITH A FEW NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE GUSTS BEING POSSIBLE UNTIL
DAYBREAK OR SO FOR THE OFFSHORE AREAS. NEARSHORE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZES PERSISTS. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OF 10
TO 14 FEET WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH WAVES
FALLING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR THE OUTER ZONES THIS
EVENING.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...BEHRINGER
MARINE...KR
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