215
FXUS66 KMTR 131730
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1030 AM PDT SUN APR 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 310 AM PDT SUN APR 13 2025
QUIET WEATHER IS ON TAP WITH A WARMING TREND STARTING TODAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. FOR MIDWEEK TO LATE
WEEK, A BRIEF COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 803 AM PDT SUN APR 13 2025
OBSERVATIONS SHOW WE'RE ON TRACK FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AS
SOME AREAS ARE ALREADY SEEING 7-10 DEGREES INCREASE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY MORNING. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
MOMENT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM PDT SUN APR 13 2025
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL START UP A WARMING TREND TODAY
WHICH WILL THEN HOLD FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WARM INTO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST WITH INLAND AREAS WARMING
INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM PDT SUN APR 13 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING WEST OF SOUTHER CA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER ACROSS SOUTHERN CA MID TO LATE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN, IN ALMOST AN INSIDE SLIDER TYPE FASHION DURING
THIS TIME WHILE AN EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH BUILDS AND TRIES TO NUDGE
EAST. AT THIS TIME, THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLES FAVOR DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. THE SIGNAL FAVORS SHOWERS OR
STORMS OVER THE KLAMATH, NORTH COASTAL, AND SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS
TUE AND WED AFTERNOONS, WHILE FOR THU AND FRI THE SIERRA NEVADA
REMAIN FAVORED BUT NOW INCLUDE THE FAR SOUTHERN COASTAL RANGE.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE CURRENTLY MORE BULLISH THAN THE NBM,
RESULTING IN A DEEPER DIVE OF THE INGREDIENTS. IN TERMS OF
CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS, PWATS SEEM TO BE REASONABLE BETWEEN 0.5-
0.75" WHILE LIFT AND CAPE MIGHT BE A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. AT THIS POINT, OPTED TO NOT ADD ANY POP OR
MENTION OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE
VARIABILITY BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ONCE WE
GET CLOSER TO THE CAM RANGE, WE'LL GET BETTER INSIGHT ON TIMING AND
POTENTIAL SINCE THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGHS WILL BE IMPORTANT.
OUTSIDE OF THAT, DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM PDT SUN APR 13 2025
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY,
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KHAF THAT WILL HAVE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE, HOWEVER WILL BE
WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY AND GENERALLY BELOW 14 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY.
PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE MONTEREY BAY
TERMINALS AND COASTAL SITES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND LOW CLOUDS AT KSTS MONDAY
MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON UP
TO 14 KNOTS BEFORE EASING LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS OF 10-12 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING AND BECOMING VARIABLE
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT KSNS.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM PDT SUN APR 13 2025
A MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NEARSHORE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OF
10 TO 14 FEET WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH
WAVES FALLING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR THE OUTER ZONES THIS
EVENING.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...RGASS
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