510
FXUS66 KMTR 131950
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1250 PM PDT SUN APR 13 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 1246 PM PDT SUN APR 13 2025
QUIET WEATHER IS ON TAP WITH A WARMING TREND STARTING TODAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. FOR MIDWEEK TO LATE
WEEK, A BRIEF COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER
WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM PDT SUN APR 13 2025
SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES REPORTED ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY, WHICH
IS ON TRACK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PROMOTES THE WARMING TREND
GOING INTO MONDAY. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO
MOSTLY 50S, BUT MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MID
70S TO MID 80S IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS, AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
ALONG THE COAST. KEEP IN MIND THAT THE WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE PUT
MOST OF OUR INLAND AREAS UNDER A MINOR HEATRISK FOR THOSE EXTREMELY
SENSITIVE TO HEAT. PLEASE TAKE THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS AND STAY
HYDRATED.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM PDT SUN APR 13 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON TUESDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SITS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA, STARTS TO
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND PUSH THE RIDGE OUT TO THE EAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES, ONSHORE WINDS, AND INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER. NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LESS
THAN 10% AND THE GFS AND NAM SHOWS PWAT VALUES REMAINING UNDER 0.80"
FOR OUR AREA ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT SPC DOES HAVE MOST OF
THE EASTERN PORTION OF CA HIGHLIGHTED FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO INSTABILITY FROM THE COLD AIR MASS AND DAYTIME
HEATING. AS WE GET CLOSER TO MID-WEEK AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH, CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE ON DETERMINING THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CLUSTER ANALYSIS DOES FAVOR A RIDGE
PUSHING IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITION THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM PDT SUN APR 13 2025
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY,
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KHAF THAT WILL HAVE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE, HOWEVER WILL BE
WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY AND GENERALLY BELOW 14 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY.
PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE MONTEREY BAY
TERMINALS AND COASTAL SITES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND LOW CLOUDS AT KSTS MONDAY
MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON UP
TO 14 KNOTS BEFORE EASING LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS OF 10-12 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING AND BECOMING VARIABLE
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT KSNS.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM PDT SUN APR 13 2025
A MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NEARSHORE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OF
10 TO 14 FEET WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH
WAVES FALLING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR THE OUTER ZONES THIS
EVENING.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...SO
LONG TERM....SO
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...RGASS
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