513
FXUS66 KMTR 132359
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
459 PM PDT SUN APR 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 1246 PM PDT SUN APR 13 2025
QUIET WEATHER IS ON TAP WITH A WARMING TREND STARTING TODAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. FOR MIDWEEK TO LATE
WEEK, A BRIEF COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER
WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM PDT SUN APR 13 2025
SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES REPORTED ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY, WHICH
IS ON TRACK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PROMOTES THE WARMING TREND
GOING INTO MONDAY. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO
MOSTLY 50S, BUT MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MID
70S TO MID 80S IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS, AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
ALONG THE COAST. KEEP IN MIND THAT THE WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE PUT
MOST OF OUR INLAND AREAS UNDER A MINOR HEATRISK FOR THOSE EXTREMELY
SENSITIVE TO HEAT. PLEASE TAKE THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS AND STAY
HYDRATED.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM PDT SUN APR 13 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON TUESDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SITS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA, STARTS TO
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND PUSH THE RIDGE OUT TO THE EAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES, ONSHORE WINDS, AND INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER. NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LESS
THAN 10% AND THE GFS AND NAM SHOWS PWAT VALUES REMAINING UNDER 0.80"
FOR OUR AREA ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT SPC DOES HAVE MOST OF
THE EASTERN PORTION OF CA HIGHLIGHTED FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO INSTABILITY FROM THE COLD AIR MASS AND DAYTIME
HEATING. AS WE GET CLOSER TO MID-WEEK AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH, CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE ON DETERMINING THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CLUSTER ANALYSIS DOES FAVOR A RIDGE
PUSHING IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITION THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 459 PM PDT SUN APR 13 2025
MODERATE WINDS REDUCE INTO THE NIGHT BECOMING LIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO IFR CIGS FILLING OVER HAF AND SNS IN THE LATE NIGHT, AND
SOME CIGS AFFECTING MRY FOR MONDAY MORNING. THE NORTH BAY TERMINALS
LOOK TO SEE MOMENTS OF FOG INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND LASTING
THROUGH THE MID MORNING. WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS LOOK TO SEE VFR
BY THE END OF MONDAY MORNING, IFR CIGS CONTINUE FOR HAF BEYOND THE
TAF PERIOD. MODERATE WINDS RETURN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL BE MORE AFFECTED BY LOCALIZED EFFECTS.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT WINDS TO REDUCE
INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BECOMING LIGHT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. WEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ONLY TO
MODERATE SPEEDS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN INTO THAT NIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...WINDS REDUCE INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY
NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS MOVE UP THE BIG SUR COAST AND INTO THE MONTEREY
BAY IN THE LATE NIGHT. MRY WILL INITIALLY BE SHELTERED FROM THESE
CLOUDS, WITH SNS FILLING IN THE LATE NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING. INCONSISTENT CIGS LOOK TO AFFECT MRY IN THE EARLY TO LATE
MORNING BEFORE CLOUD COVER ERODES ACROSS THE AREA. AS SKIES CLEAR,
MODERATE WINDS BUILD FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 PM PDT SUN APR 13 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, WITH WAVES FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER ZONE THIS EVENING.
SEAS BUILD TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...SO
LONG TERM....SO
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...RGASS
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
X.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page