553
FXUS66 KMTR 141038
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
338 AM PDT MON APR 14 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 308 AM PDT MON APR 14 2025
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. A
PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS TUESDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PEAK
AROUND THEIR SEASONAL AVERAGE. A COOLING TREND IS FORECAST FOR MID
TO LATE WEEK, WITH A WARMING TREND RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM PDT MON APR 14 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY TODAY, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ENDED
UP REVIEWING YESTERDAY'S FORECAST AND USING THAT AS A STARTING
POINT FOR TODAY, WHICH PUTS WIDESPREAD 70S ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
LOW 80S BEING REALIZED FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, THE UPPER 50S TO 60S SHOULD BE REALIZED. MINOR HEATRISK IS
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WHICH MEANS THIS TYPE OF HEAT
PRIMARILY AFFECTS INDIVIDUALS EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT,
ESPECIALLY WHEN OUTDOORS WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE
HYDRATION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM PDT MON APR 14 2025
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A PATTERN CHANGE
BEGINS TUESDAY, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY MOVING INTO AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN CA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN QUESTION REMAINS, WILL WE
GET ANY SORT OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS, AND IN PARTICULAR
THUNDERSTORMS? THE SIGNAL STILL SHOWS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE, WITH FAVOR NOW LEANING TOWARDS WEDNESDAY. SO
MUCH SO THAT THE SPC HAS PLACES A GENERAL RISK OF THUNDER ALONG
OUR PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL RANGE. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A
TOUCH MORE IN TERMS OF AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
BEFORE ADDING THUNDER TO OUR FORECAST LOCALLY BEFORE ADDING THE
MENTION OF THUNDER IN OUR FORECAST. BUT, GIVEN WHAT WAS SEEN
TONIGHT IN TERMS OF DATA, AGREE WITH THE GENERAL AREA THAT WAS
HIGHLIGHTED SHOULD MODELS COME INTO EVEN MORE AGREEMENT.
BEYOND THAT, DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE ON TAP. WITH A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 947 PM PDT SUN APR 13 2025
WINDS CONTINUE TO REDUCE INTO THE NIGHT AND LOOK TO BECOME LIGHT
FOR MOST AREAS. CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO IFR CIGS FILLING OVER HAF
AND SNS IN THE LATE NIGHT, AND SOME CIGS AFFECTING MRY FOR MONDAY
MORNING. THE NORTH BAY TERMINALS LOOK TO SEE MOMENTS OF FOG INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND LASTING THROUGH THE MID MORNING. WHILE
ALL OTHER TERMINALS LOOK TO SEE VFR BY THE END OF MONDAY MORNING,
IFR CIGS CONTINUE FOR HAF BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD. MODERATE WINDS
RETURN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE MORE
AFFECTED BY LOCALIZED EFFECTS. IFR CIGS WILL BUILD INLAND INTO
THAT EVENING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT WINDS TO REDUCE
INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BECOMING LIGHT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. WEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ONLY TO
MODERATE SPEEDS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN INTO THAT NIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...WINDS ARE BECOMING LIGHT AROUND THE
TERMINALS. CLOUD COVER IS ROTATING AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY AROUND AN
EDDY, TRANSPORTING CLOUD COVER COUNTER-CLOCKWISE. SAID EDDY PUSHED
IFR CIGS INTO SNS BUT ARE NOW PULLING THEM TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MONTEREY BAY. LOW CLOUDS MOVE UP THE BIG SUR COAST
AND INTO THE MONTEREY BAY IN THE LATE NIGHT AS THE OSCILLATION
BEGINS TO FALL APART. MRY WILL INITIALLY BE SHELTERED FROM THESE
CLOUDS, WITH SNS FILLING IN THE LATE NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING. INCONSISTENT CIGS LOOK TO AFFECT MRY IN THE EARLY TO LATE
MORNING BEFORE CLOUD COVER RETREATS BACK TO INTO THE BAY ITSELF.
AS TERMINALS RETURN TO VFR, MODERATE WINDS BUILD FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS RETURN IN THE EARLY EVENING ON MONDAY AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM PDT MON APR 14 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WHICH
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. MODERATE SEAS HOLD
THROUGH MID WEEK OR SO, AND THEN BUILD INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WORK WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...MURDOCK
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