186
FXUS66 KMTR 141500
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
800 AM PDT MON APR 14 2025
..NEW UPDATE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 308 AM PDT MON APR 14 2025
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. A
PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS TUESDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PEAK
AROUND THEIR SEASONAL AVERAGE. A COOLING TREND IS FORECAST FOR MID
TO LATE WEEK, WITH A WARMING TREND RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 750 AM PDT MON APR 14 2025
SATELLITE SHOWS THE DENSE FOG OVER MONTEREY BAY AND SAN FRANCISCO
PENINSULA COAST REMAINS SOCKED IN. WITH OBSERVATIONS REPORTING
1/4 MILE VISIBILITY, THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT FOG
IN THOSE AREAS. IN ADDITION, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
THROUGH 10 AM FOR MONTEREY BAY COAST, MONTEREY BAY, AND SAN
FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST. COMMUTERS PLEASE TAKE CAUTION BY
SLOWING DOWN, USING HEADLIGHTS, AND LEAVING PLENTY OF DISTANCE
AHEAD OF YOU, AS LOW VISIBILITY CAN CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM PDT MON APR 14 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY TODAY, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ENDED
UP REVIEWING YESTERDAY'S FORECAST AND USING THAT AS A STARTING
POINT FOR TODAY, WHICH PUTS WIDESPREAD 70S ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
LOW 80S BEING REALIZED FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, THE UPPER 50S TO 60S SHOULD BE REALIZED. MINOR HEATRISK IS
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WHICH MEANS THIS TYPE OF HEAT
PRIMARILY AFFECTS INDIVIDUALS EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT,
ESPECIALLY WHEN OUTDOORS WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE
HYDRATION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM PDT MON APR 14 2025
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A PATTERN CHANGE
BEGINS TUESDAY, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY MOVING INTO AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN CA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN QUESTION REMAINS, WILL WE
GET ANY SORT OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS, AND IN PARTICULAR
THUNDERSTORMS? THE SIGNAL STILL SHOWS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE, WITH FAVOR NOW LEANING TOWARDS WEDNESDAY. SO
MUCH SO THAT THE SPC HAS PLACES A GENERAL RISK OF THUNDER ALONG
OUR PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL RANGE. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A
TOUCH MORE IN TERMS OF AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
BEFORE ADDING THUNDER TO OUR FORECAST LOCALLY BEFORE ADDING THE
MENTION OF THUNDER IN OUR FORECAST. BUT, GIVEN WHAT WAS SEEN
TONIGHT IN TERMS OF DATA, AGREE WITH THE GENERAL AREA THAT WAS
HIGHLIGHTED SHOULD MODELS COME INTO EVEN MORE AGREEMENT.
BEYOND THAT, DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE ON TAP. WITH A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 433 AM PDT MON APR 14 2025
INCREASING CLOUDINESS ALONG THE COAST AREAS THIS MORNING,
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR CIGS, AND SOME DENSE FG. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH MIDDAY FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.
EXPECTING MARINE STRATUS TO LINGER NEAR THE COAST, WHERE TERMINALS
SUCH AS KHAF MAY TEETER ON THE BORDER OF SCT AND BKN ALL DAY.
CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. EXPECTING ANOTHER
ROUND OF POTENTIAL IFR CIGS FOR COASTAL AND BAY AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WILL UNDOUBTEDLY SEE INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS, HOWEVER.
VICINITY OF SFO...LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR MARINE STRATUS CREEPING IN
THIS MORNING, BUT OVERALL SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR OF THE
AIRFIELD. VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN INCREASING CLOUDINESS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR
IFR CIGS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THANKS TO THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND, AS SUCH, PRESENCE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
DISRUPTING OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION. NO MAJOR CONCERNS
REGARDING WINDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE NW FLOW THROUGH MOST OF
TODAY, BACKING MORE SW OVERNIGHT BUT REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURGE ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST THIS MORNING BRINGING STRATUS WELL INTO THE MONTEREY BAY,
BUT ALSO PROVIDING SOME UNCERTAINTY INVOF KMRY. SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY CLEARING OF FG THIS
MORNING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF OF THE
SANTA LUCIA RANGE...ALSO NOTED IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. VFR
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAND AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN
TO IFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM PDT MON APR 14 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WHICH
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. MODERATE SEAS HOLD
THROUGH MID WEEK OR SO, AND THEN BUILD INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WORK WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ509-529-
530.
PZ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR MRY BAY.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...BEHRINGER
MARINE...KR
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