351
FXUS66 KMTR 141758
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1058 AM PDT MON APR 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 308 AM PDT MON APR 14 2025
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. A
PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS TUESDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PEAK
AROUND THEIR SEASONAL AVERAGE. A COOLING TREND IS FORECAST FOR MID
TO LATE WEEK, WITH A WARMING TREND RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 750 AM PDT MON APR 14 2025
SATELLITE SHOWS THE DENSE FOG OVER MONTEREY BAY AND SAN FRANCISCO
PENINSULA COAST REMAINS SOCKED IN. WITH OBSERVATIONS REPORTING
1/4 MILE VISIBILITY, THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT FOG
IN THOSE AREAS. IN ADDITION, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
THROUGH 10 AM FOR MONTEREY BAY COAST, MONTEREY BAY, AND SAN
FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST. COMMUTERS PLEASE TAKE CAUTION BY
SLOWING DOWN, USING HEADLIGHTS, AND LEAVING PLENTY OF DISTANCE
AHEAD OF YOU, AS LOW VISIBILITY CAN CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM PDT MON APR 14 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY TODAY, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ENDED
UP REVIEWING YESTERDAY'S FORECAST AND USING THAT AS A STARTING
POINT FOR TODAY, WHICH PUTS WIDESPREAD 70S ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
LOW 80S BEING REALIZED FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, THE UPPER 50S TO 60S SHOULD BE REALIZED. MINOR HEATRISK IS
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WHICH MEANS THIS TYPE OF HEAT
PRIMARILY AFFECTS INDIVIDUALS EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT,
ESPECIALLY WHEN OUTDOORS WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE
HYDRATION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM PDT MON APR 14 2025
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A PATTERN CHANGE
BEGINS TUESDAY, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY MOVING INTO AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN CA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN QUESTION REMAINS, WILL WE
GET ANY SORT OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS, AND IN PARTICULAR
THUNDERSTORMS? THE SIGNAL STILL SHOWS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE, WITH FAVOR NOW LEANING TOWARDS WEDNESDAY. SO
MUCH SO THAT THE SPC HAS PLACES A GENERAL RISK OF THUNDER ALONG
OUR PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL RANGE. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A
TOUCH MORE IN TERMS OF AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
BEFORE ADDING THUNDER TO OUR FORECAST LOCALLY BEFORE ADDING THE
MENTION OF THUNDER IN OUR FORECAST. BUT, GIVEN WHAT WAS SEEN
TONIGHT IN TERMS OF DATA, AGREE WITH THE GENERAL AREA THAT WAS
HIGHLIGHTED SHOULD MODELS COME INTO EVEN MORE AGREEMENT.
BEYOND THAT, DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE ON TAP. WITH A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM PDT MON APR 14 2025
LIFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO IMPROVE TO MVFR/IFR ALONG COASTAL AND
COASTAL ADJACENT TERMINALS AT THIS HOUR WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
KHAF. INLAND SITES ARE VFR AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS INCREASING TO ABOUT 09-14
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS EASE OVERNIGHT WITH COASTAL SITES LIKELY
TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND THEN IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES RETURN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. INLAND SITES ARE
LESS LIKELY TO SEE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS, BUT MORE LIKELY TO BE MVFR
TO HIGH END IFR EARLY TUESDAY. THESE LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG ARE
FORECAST TO LIFT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN INCREASING
CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THANKS TO THE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND PRESENCE OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS DISRUPTING OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION. ONSHORE WINDS
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT NOTHING TO OVERLY
STRONG.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP OVER THE APPROACH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT
WILL BE QUICKER TO DISSIPATE IF THEY DO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...BECOMING VFR ONCE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE.
ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 7-10 KT. WINDS
EASE LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO RETURN.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM PDT MON APR 14 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WHICH
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. MODERATE SEAS HOLD
THROUGH MID WEEK OR SO, AND THEN BUILD INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WORK WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...RGASS
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