100
FXUS66 KMTR 011202
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
502 AM PDT SUN JUN 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 305 AM PDT SUN JUN 1 2025
THE PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS TODAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SQUEEZED OUT OF
THE PICTURE. SUNDAY WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION AFTER
OUR BRIEF STINT WITH EARLY SUMMER-LIKE HEAT. BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY INTO THE WORK WEEK, PERHAPS
MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL AS EARLY AS MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM PDT SUN JUN 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-PATTERN CHANGE AND COOL DOWN TODAY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY
AND ENTER NORTHERN CA WHILE THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA DRIFTS NORTH AND EASTWARD. THESE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE
TO CUT OFF OUR ACCESS TO HIGH PRESSURE, LEADING TO COOLER WEATHER
SPREADING OVER THE REGION. INTERIOR LOCATIONS FOR THE NORTH BAY
AND CENTRAL COAST WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
WHERE HIGHS WILL SPAN THE 80S. ELSEWHERE NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOW 70S, WITH IT BEING WARMER AS YOU GO INLAND.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM PDT SUN JUN 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-MARINE LAYER RETURNS, MORE SEASONAL WEATHER BY MID TO LATE WEEK
-SMALL WARM UP POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND
THE TROUGH ENTERING INTO NORTHERN CA ON SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BECOME
A CUTOFF LOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLIDE DOWN THE CA COAST ON
MONDAY, MAKING IT TO SOUTHERN CA BY TUESDAY. AS IT DOES THIS, THE
CUTOFF LOW FROM BAJA GETS EJECTED INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
COOLER WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME,
WITH THE MARINE LAYER MAKING A RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY LOOKS. SOME MODELS TRY TO SPIN A RIBBON OF MOISTURE UP
INTO OUR NEXT OF THE WOODS AS THE LOW TRAVERSES SOUTH.
ADDITIONALLYSOME MODELS THROW SOME INSTABILITY INTO THIS MIX,
WHICH SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO
ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. THERE'S A BETTER
CHANCE OF SEEING FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA RATHER THAN
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON THE
FORECAST TO SEE IF ANY ADDITIONAL CAMS TAP INTO THIS SOLUTION.
COOLER TO NEAR SEASONAL WEATHER IS ON TAP THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK. WE COULD SEE A SMALL WARM UP BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 502 AM PDT SUN JUN 1 2025
PATCHY IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARINE LAYER IS CURRENTLY
AROUND 1000 FT TO 1500 FT DEEP WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME IFR TO MVFR CIGS
TO TEMPORARILY FILTER INTO THE SF BAY (IMPACTING OAK AND SFO).
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT STRATUS WILL REACH STS AND APC THIS MORNING.
GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MARINE LAYER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, BUMPED UP VISIBILITIES AND CIG HEIGHTS FOR MOST SITES
WITH CURRENT THINKING SUPPORTING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVER FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. CIGS CLEAR OUT MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE
RETURNING TOMORROW EVENING FOR COASTAL AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO
MODERATE ON TIMING OF STRATUS RETURN TONIGHT WITH LAMP PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE SUPPORTING AN EARLY RETURN ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND A
SLIGHTLY LATER RETURN FOR THE SF BAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...PATCHY IFR CIGS LOOK TO TEMPORARILY DEVELOP EARLY
THIS MORNING BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL BY LATE MORNING. ANY CIGS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE ON THE IFR-MVFR BORDER WITH CURRENT THINKING
LEANING TOWARDS THE IFR SIDE GIVEN CIGS BEING REPORTED AT HAF, MRY,
AND SNS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE WINDS EASE AND SHIFT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
GUIDANCE INDICATES MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TOMORROW NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON STRATUS RETURN
TIMING IS LOW TO MODERATE WITH STRATUS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BETWEEN 07-
09Z.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT MRY. CIGS IMPROVE FROM IFR TO MVFR
AROUND 15-16Z WITH CLEARING ANTICIPATED BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. AN EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH
CURRENT THINKING LEANING TOWARDS CIGS ON THE IFR-MVFR BORDER. BREEZY
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH WINDS EASING
OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM PDT SUN JUN 1 2025
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO GALE FORCE GUSTS CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY WORK WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WHERE OCCASIONAL STORM FORCE
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM POINT ARENA TO POINT REYES. ROUGH
SEAS CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
BUILDING TO 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND UP
TO 22 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY EASE BY TUESDAY BUT SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT
ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...KENNEDY
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