915
FXUS66 KMTR 012006
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
106 PM PDT SUN JUN 1 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 106 PM PDT SUN JUN 1 2025
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK
ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. HIGHS MAINLY 60S ALONG THE
COAST, 70S BAYSIDE AND 80S WELL INLAND. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CLEARING NEAR THE COAST.
NEXT INLAND WARMING TREND MAY OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM PDT SUN JUN 1 2025
INLAND TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE SAME TIME WITH 1 PM READINGS IN THE MID 70S FOR
LIVERMORE, 72 CONCORD AND SANTA ROSA. A STUBBORN 1500 FOOT MARINE
LAYER AND MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS HAVE KEPT LOW CLOUDS COVERING
THE CITY AND BUMPING INTO THE BERKELEY HILLS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE ENTIRE MONTEREY BAY REGION INCLUDING THE SANTA
CRUZ SIDE REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS WELL WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S (AND
STILL ONLY 55 FOR HALF MOON BAY). DESPITE THE TYPICAL JUNE GLOOM
CONDITIONS TO START THE MONTH THE UPPER PATTERN IS ACTUALLY QUITE
COMPLEX WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER BAJA THAT IS HELPING TO FIRE SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. MEANWHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW
NEAR CAPE MENDOCINO IS GOING TO DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG OUR
COASTLINE OVERNIGHT. IT'LL GENERATE SOME STRONG WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY THAT MAY TRY AND SNEAK INTO NAPA COUNTY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
MINIMAL WITH THE HIGHER RH AND COOLER TEMPS. THE SYSTEM MAY
GENERATE SOME T-STORMS ACROSS SHASTA/MENDOCINO REGION BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY ROGUE STORMS FOR THE BAY AREA DESPITE THIS DYNAMIC
SHORTWAVE. MODEL DATA SUGGESTS MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
ALOFT WITH THE NET RESULT FOR THE BAY AREA BEING SOME LOCAL
DRIZZLE UNDERNEATH THE MARINE LAYER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BY
MONDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE SOME NORTHEAST (OFFSHORE) WINDS IN
THE HILLS IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN THE COAST.
THIS WILL HELP TO ERODE THE MARINE LAYER EARLY IN THE NORTH BAY
AND DISRUPT THE USUAL SEABREEZE PATTERN BUT THE OVERALL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS LOOKS MINIMAL WITH ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL DAY TO
START THE WORK WEEK NEAR THE COAST WITH MILD TEMPS INLAND.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM PDT SUN JUN 1 2025
THE INNOCUOUS UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH INLAND BY TUESDAY
ALLOWING A MORE TYPICAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN TO RETURN TO
NORCAL. END RESULT FOR THE BAY AREA WILL BE A PERIOD OF NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
60S COAST, 70S BAYSIDE AND ONLY THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND. THOSE
LOOKING FOR HOT TEMPS WONT REALLY FIND THEM THIS WEEK FOR THE BAY
AREA WITH NO 90 DEGREE READINGS FORECAST.
NO REAL BIG CHANGES OF NOTE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. LONG RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER STRONG/WARM RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO NOSE INTO
NORCAL BY NEXT SUNDAY BUT THATS LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.
THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE OCEAN THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN
EFFICIENT FOR COASTAL UPWELLING WITH SST CURRENTLY 52-55. THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN AND COLD OCEAN TEMPS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR
NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS EACH DAY WHICH FITS CLIMO FOR THE MONTH
OF JUNE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM PDT SUN JUN 1 2025
CLOUD COVER IS ERODING FOR ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST, BUT CIGS
LOOK TO CLEAR OR AT LEAST SCATTER FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES BY THE
MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. CIGS REBUILD IN THE EARLY EVENING ALONG THE
COAST, THE SF BAY AND FOR THE MONTEREY BAY, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY. MORE CONSISTENT MVFR CIGS AFFECT THE MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS
INTO THE NIGHT AS WINDS REDUCE ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE CLOUD COVER
RETREATS AROUND THE SF BAY. A SURFACE LOW NEARS THE REGION IN THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING, LEADING TO SOME PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFTS
AND REVERSALS FOR SITES CLOSER TO THE COAST. IT WILL ALSO PULL CLOUD
COVER AWAY FROM THE COAST, LEADING A REDUCTION IN CIGS AT HAF, AND
MID-MORNING CLEARING FOR THE MONTEREY BAY. INCONSISTENT IFR CIGS
ALSO LOOK TO AFFECT APC IN THE LATE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
BEFORE ERODING. MODERATE WINDS AND WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING
VICINITY OF SFO...EXPECT VFR TO LAST INTO THE LATE EVENING. BREEZY
TO GUSTY WEST WINDS LAST INTO THE LATE EVENING BEFORE REDUCING AS
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS BUILD AROUND THE SF BAY. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO
INCONSISTENTLY FILL OVER SFO AND OAK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE RETREATING. WINDS STAY LIGHT UNTIL THE MID MORNING
BEFORE BECOMING MORE MODERATE AND NORTHEASTERLY, BUT THEN SWITCH
BACK TO BEING WESTERLY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CLOUD COVER SCATTERERS INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
WINDS INCREASE. EXPECT WINDS TO REDUCE AGAIN INTO THE EVENING AS
CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO REBUILD. AN OTTER EDDY LOOKS TO FORM IN THE
CENTER OF THE MONTEREY BAY IN THE EARLY EVENING, CAUSING CLOUD COVER
TO INCONSISTENTLY FILL OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
INTO THE NIGHT. CIGS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT INTO THE LATE NIGHT
WITH WINDS REDUCING FURTHER. A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
JUST WEST OF THE MONTEREY BAY INTO MID MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
PULL CLOUD COVER AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM PDT SUN JUN 1 2025
THE OUTER WATERS CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG TO GALE FORCE GUSTS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND THESE WINDS LOOK TO LAST
INTO EARLY WORK WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WHERE OCCASIONAL STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM POINT ARENA TO POINT REYES. ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE OVER
THE OUTER WATERS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 10 TO
15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND UP TO 22 FEET ACROSS
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS GRADUALLY EASE BY TUESDAY BUT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR SF BAY N OF BAY
BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...MURDOCK
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