525
FXUS66 KMTR 020438
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
938 PM PDT SUN JUN 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 106 PM PDT SUN JUN 1 2025
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK
ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. HIGHS MAINLY 60S ALONG THE
COAST, 70S BAYSIDE AND 80S WELL INLAND. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CLEARING NEAR THE COAST.
NEXT INLAND WARMING TREND MAY OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 834 PM PDT SUN JUN 1 2025
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THEN 24 HOURS
AGO WITH INLAND LOCATIONS RUNNING AS MUCH AS 27 DEGREES COOLER.
LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE ALSO COOLER BUT IN THE 5 TO 10
DEGREE RANGE. THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO HOLD ON AS THE ONSHORE
FLOW PREVAILS. A LOW SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH COMBINED WITH A
CUT OFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/BAJA MEXICO WILL DISRUPT THE
ONSHORE REGIME ALLOWING WIND TO TURN SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY
MORNING. THESE OFFSHORE WIND WILL FURTHER ERODE THE MARINE LAYER
ALONG THE COAST RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
COASTAL REGIONS. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
NO UPDATES NEEDED TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM PDT SUN JUN 1 2025
INLAND TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE SAME TIME WITH 1 PM READINGS IN THE MID 70S FOR
LIVERMORE, 72 CONCORD AND SANTA ROSA. A STUBBORN 1500 FOOT MARINE
LAYER AND MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS HAVE KEPT LOW CLOUDS COVERING
THE CITY AND BUMPING INTO THE BERKELEY HILLS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE ENTIRE MONTEREY BAY REGION INCLUDING THE SANTA
CRUZ SIDE REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS WELL WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S (AND
STILL ONLY 55 FOR HALF MOON BAY). DESPITE THE TYPICAL JUNE GLOOM
CONDITIONS TO START THE MONTH THE UPPER PATTERN IS ACTUALLY QUITE
COMPLEX WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER BAJA THAT IS HELPING TO FIRE SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. MEANWHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW
NEAR CAPE MENDOCINO IS GOING TO DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG OUR
COASTLINE OVERNIGHT. IT'LL GENERATE SOME STRONG WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY THAT MAY TRY AND SNEAK INTO NAPA COUNTY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
MINIMAL WITH THE HIGHER RH AND COOLER TEMPS. THE SYSTEM MAY
GENERATE SOME T-STORMS ACROSS SHASTA/MENDOCINO REGION BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY ROGUE STORMS FOR THE BAY AREA DESPITE THIS DYNAMIC
SHORTWAVE. MODEL DATA SUGGESTS MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
ALOFT WITH THE NET RESULT FOR THE BAY AREA BEING SOME LOCAL
DRIZZLE UNDERNEATH THE MARINE LAYER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BY
MONDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE SOME NORTHEAST (OFFSHORE) WINDS IN
THE HILLS IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN THE COAST.
THIS WILL HELP TO ERODE THE MARINE LAYER EARLY IN THE NORTH BAY
AND DISRUPT THE USUAL SEABREEZE PATTERN BUT THE OVERALL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS LOOKS MINIMAL WITH ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL DAY TO
START THE WORK WEEK NEAR THE COAST WITH MILD TEMPS INLAND.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM PDT SUN JUN 1 2025
THE INNOCUOUS UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH INLAND BY TUESDAY
ALLOWING A MORE TYPICAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN TO RETURN TO
NORCAL. END RESULT FOR THE BAY AREA WILL BE A PERIOD OF NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
60S COAST, 70S BAYSIDE AND ONLY THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND. THOSE
LOOKING FOR HOT TEMPS WONT REALLY FIND THEM THIS WEEK FOR THE BAY
AREA WITH NO 90 DEGREE READINGS FORECAST.
NO REAL BIG CHANGES OF NOTE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. LONG RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER STRONG/WARM RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO NOSE INTO
NORCAL BY NEXT SUNDAY BUT THATS LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.
THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE OCEAN THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN
EFFICIENT FOR COASTAL UPWELLING WITH SST CURRENTLY 52-55. THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN AND COLD OCEAN TEMPS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR
NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS EACH DAY WHICH FITS CLIMO FOR THE MONTH
OF JUNE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 919 PM PDT SUN JUN 1 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT LOW STRATUS IS FILTERING
INTO THE NORTH BAY TERMINALS RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS WITH A MORE
ROBUST MARINE LAYER THAT IS NO LONGER BEING COMPRESSED. VFR IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE BAY AREA
TERMINALS. HOWEVER, LOW MARINE STRATUS MAY DROP CIGS INTO
MVFR/IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MONDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...MARINE LAYER STRATUS IS DEVELOPING LATE THIS
EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF KSFO AND KOAK, AND MAY INTERMITTENLY
IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AT TIMES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS HAVE EASED AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS BREEZY MONDAY AS WE'VE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...STEADY ONSHORE FLOW, BREEZY AT TIMES,
WILL HELP KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF MONDAY MORNING, WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD ON MONDAY.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 846 PM PDT SUN JUN 1 2025
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WHERE OCCASIONAL STORM FORCE
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM POINT ARENA TO POINT REYES. ROUGH SEAS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
BUILDING TO 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND UP
TO 22 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
AS WELL. WINDS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY EASE BY TUESDAY BUT SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...CW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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