069
FXUS66 KMTR 021931
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1231 PM PDT MON JUN 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 332 AM PDT MON JUN 2 2025
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK
ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. HIGHS MAINLY 60S ALONG THE COAST,
70S BAYSIDE AND 80S WELL INLAND. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS
FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CLEARING NEAR THE COAST.
NEXT INLAND WARMING TREND MAY OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 921 AM PDT MON JUN 2 2025
THE INHERITED FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE SKY AND WIND GRIDS. AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. AS WE'RE ALREADY SEEING WITH
OUR PROFILER NETWORK, WINDS ALOFT ARE BECOMING MORE OFFSHORE.
WHILE MOST SITES DON'T SEE A REFLECTION OF THE OFFSHORE WINDS AT
THE SURFACE, THE MARINE STRATUS CONTINUES TO ERODE THIS MORNING.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE SHOULD KICK IN.
THERE IS A NOTICEABLE DELTA BREEZE EVIDENT IN MOST OF THE SHORT-
TERM HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AND I'VE REFRESHED THE GRIDS TO
REFLECT THIS. WIND/WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS AREAS
OF THE WEST DELTA (NORTHERN CONTRA COSTA/SOUTHERN NAPA COUNTIES)
HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH.
ALSO, THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND
SAN BENITO COUNTIES CONTINUES TO WANE. WITH THE UPPER LOW BEING A
LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT, MOISTURE
TRAJECTORIES DON'T APPEAR QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS ACROSS OUR
AREA (BETTER RISK IS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST). STILL, THE CHANCE
FOR POCKETS OF CU TO MATURE INTO TCU/CB LATER TODAY AND REALLY ON
TUESDAY ARE NON-ZERO ACROSS THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST AND WE'LL
KEEP MONITOR OF THIS POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM PDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
-NIGHTTIME AND MORNING STRATUS AND FOG.
-NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER LOW TRAVERSING DOWN
THE COAST OF CA. MINIMAL HIGH CLOUD IS BEING OBSERVED; HOWEVER, IF
YOU LOOK AT THE NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AND FOG DIFFERENCE YOU CAN
SEE THE MARINE LAYER HAS MADE A TRIUMPHANT RETURN INTO THE CENTRAL
COAST AND BAY AREA. THIS REDUCED THE CHANCE OR EVEN OBLITERATED,
ESPECIALLY HERE IN MONTEREY, THE CHANCE TO SEE THE AURORA LAST
NIGHT OR THIS MORNING. FOR AREAS WHERE THE STRATUS HASN'T
INFILTRATED, HOPEFULLY YOU GOT A CHANCE TO TRY AND SEE THE BEAUTY
OF THE NORTHERN LIGHTS OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS.
IN TERMS OF TODAY'S FORECAST, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE DOWN
THE COAST WHILE A CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND HELP
ERADICATE THE STRATUS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL
TODAY, WITH STRATUS RETURNING LATE TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM PDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
-MARINE LAYER RETURNS, WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS EACH DAY.
-NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
-TEMPERATURES INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND.
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM MONDAY SHOULD BE WEST OF SOUTHERN CA
BY TUESDAY MORNING AND BEGIN PUSHING INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWS A RIBBON OF MOISTURE TRYING TO ADVECT INTO CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN CA, ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY. THE BEST CHANCE TO
SEE BOTH OF THESE INGREDIENTS IS OVER SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES; HOWEVER, NOT MANY MODELS ARE BITING ON TO THIS.
WE'LL LIKELY BE UNDER EITHER WEAK TROUGHING TO ZONAL FLOW AT THIS
TIME, WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WE MIGHT
SEE SOME CUMULUS POP UP OVER THE RIDGES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
OR PERHAPS SOUTHERN CA.
BEYOND THAT, LOOK FOR THE JUNE GLOOM OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING
STRATUS THROUGH THE WEEK AND NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A WARMING TREND, ESPECIALLY FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS,
LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM PDT MON JUN 2 2025
WIDESPREAD VFR LASTS INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT MODERATE TO BREEZY
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BEFORE WINDS BEGIN
TO REDUCE. CIGS REBUILD IN THE EARLY EVENING ALONG THE COAST, AND
BEGIN TO FILL IN THE BAYS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO MOVE
INLAND INTO THE LATE NIGHT, AFFECTING STS, THEN APC INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. CIGS FALL TO IFR LEVELS FOR APC, MRY, SNS, AND HAF INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME MIST AND HAZE AFFECTING VISIBILITIES FOR
HAF. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO ERODE IN MOST AREAS BY THE LATE MORNING
ON TUESDAY, WITH HAF KEEPING CIGS BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.
VICINITY OF SFO...EXPECT VFR TO LAST INTO EARLY TUESDAY. BREEZY TO
GUSTY WEST WINDS LAST INTO THE LATE EVENING BEFORE REDUCING AS
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS BUILD AROUND THE SF BAY. THESE CLOUDS LOOK FILL
OVER SFO INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. CIGS WILL BURN
OFF IN THE LATE MORNING WITH WINDS STAYING LIGHT INTO THAT AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR AND MODERATE WINDS LAST INTO THE
EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO REDUCE IN THE MI EVENING AS CLOUD COVER
BEGINS TO REBUILD. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FILL OVER THE TERMINALS INTO
THE EARLY NIGHT AS WINDS CONTINUE TO REDUCE. CIGS FALL TO IFR LEVELS
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CIGS ERODE INTO THE LATE MORNING AS
MODERATE WINDS BUILD.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 911 AM PDT MON JUN 2 2025
ROUGH SEAS AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 20 FT CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AND UP TO 15 FT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
GRADUALLY EASE BY TUESDAY BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH WITH ELEVATED
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 10 TO 16 FT CONTINUING LATE
MONDAY THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...MURDOCK
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