738
FXUS66 KMTR 022014
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
114 PM PDT MON JUN 2 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 102 PM PDT MON JUN 2 2025
GENERALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL, BEFORE CONDITIONS MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DAILY ONSHORE BREEZES ARE FORECAST, WITH
PORTIONS OF THE WEST DELTA, WITHIN GAPS AND CHANNELS, AND ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN POTENTIALLY EXPERIENCING GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 102 PM PDT MON JUN 2 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
SHORT TERM KEY MESSAGES
-JUST BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
-INCREASED BREEZES ACROSS THE WEST DELTA/AREAS OF COMPLEX TERRAIN
-NON-ZERO RISK FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES AN UPPER LOW
CHURNING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA BIGHT. IT'LL GET
ENVELOPED WITHIN THE MAIN FLOW SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE EAST PAC DOES
INDICATE REMNANT MOISTURE AROUND THE FLAT H5 RIDGE WILL BE DRAWN
NORTHWARD. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THAT FLOW AROUND THE WEST
SIDE OF THE HIGH AND EAST SIDE/AHEAD OF UPPER LOW WILL BE SUCH
THAT A MAJORITY OF THE RICHER PLUME WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
STILL, SOME GUIDANCE, MOST NOTABLY THE NAM (WHICH TYPICALLY HAS A
SLIGHT WET BIAS), INDICATES THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) JUST
OVER 3/4 OF AN INCH MAY EEK INTO SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW,
THE MAIN TRIGGER WOULD NEED TO BE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT ACROSS THE
GABILAN RANGE. FOR NOW, I'LL ADVERTISE A 5 POP ACROSS THIS REGION
AS CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH (AND NOT BOLSTERED BY ANY NCEP OR PG&E
HIGH- RES NWP), BUT WE'LL KEEP MONITOR OF THIS POTENTIAL,
PARTICULARLY WITH 700-500MB LAPSE RATES FORECAST TO APPROACH OR
EXCEED 7 C/KM (AND THEY ARE ALREADY AROUND 8 C/KM PER OUR 12 UTC
OAK RAOB). OTHERWISE, POCKETS OF DRIZZLE/MIST CANNOT BE
DISCOUNTED, PARTICULARLY ALONG COASTAL REGIONS.
OTHERWISE, I EXPECT THAT WE'LL SEE AN UPTICK IN BREEZES AS THE
SFO-SAC GRADIENT INCHES TOWARD 3-4MB. THIS SHOULD FUEL A BIT MORE
ONSHORE FLOW AND I ANTICIPATE THAT THROUGH SOME OF THE
GAPS/PASSES, WIND GUSTS WILL BE ENHANCED. IN FACT, THE PROBABILITY
OF PEAK WIND GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 25-30 MPH EXCEEDS 70% FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS, WEST DELTA AND EAST BAY HILLS
WITH AROUND A 20-30%% CHANCE THAT PEAK WINDS COULD GUST OVER 40
MPH ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE, THE ONSHORE FLOW (WHICH ISN'T UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR) WILL SUPPORT NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 102 PM PDT MON JUN 2 2025
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
LONG TERM KEY MESSAGES
-GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW KICKING EASTWARD, THE OVERALL
LONG TERM PATTERN APPEARS THAT IT'LL BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHT
LONGWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
LARGELY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER (WARM AND PRECIPITATION-FREE) ACROSS
THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. WE'LL LIKELY SEE A DIURNAL PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY A PUSH OF MARINE STRATUS ONSHORE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH EROSION OF THE MARINE LAYER LATE MORNING AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
TOWARD DAYS 5 THROUGH 7, MODEL SOLUTIONS DO BEGIN TO SHOW SOME
VARIABILITY. MOST SOLUTIONS SHOW A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATING THE HEART
OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE MORE CENTERED ACROSS BIG SKY COUNTRY.
THERE IS A SOLUTION CLUSTER (MOSTLY COMPRISED OF CANADIAN/GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS) THAT WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN THE WAY OF TROUGHING
ACROSS THE PACNW, BUT THIS DOESN'T REALLY RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA. FOR NOW, THE DETERMINISTIC
NBM OFFERS A VALID SOLUTION FOR ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH CONTINUING
THIS WEEKEND AND ONWARD. THIS PAIRS WELL WITH EXTENDED TEMPERATURE
OUTLOOKS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM PDT MON JUN 2 2025
WIDESPREAD VFR LASTS INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT MODERATE TO BREEZY
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BEFORE WINDS BEGIN
TO REDUCE. CIGS REBUILD IN THE EARLY EVENING ALONG THE COAST, AND
BEGIN TO FILL IN THE BAYS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO MOVE
INLAND INTO THE LATE NIGHT, AFFECTING STS, THEN APC INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. CIGS FALL TO IFR LEVELS FOR APC, MRY, SNS, AND HAF INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME MIST AND HAZE AFFECTING VISIBILITIES FOR
HAF. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO ERODE IN MOST AREAS BY THE LATE MORNING
ON TUESDAY, WITH HAF KEEPING CIGS BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.
VICINITY OF SFO...EXPECT VFR TO LAST INTO EARLY TUESDAY. BREEZY TO
GUSTY WEST WINDS LAST INTO THE LATE EVENING BEFORE REDUCING AS
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS BUILD AROUND THE SF BAY. THESE CLOUDS LOOK FILL
OVER SFO INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. CIGS WILL BURN
OFF IN THE LATE MORNING WITH WINDS STAYING LIGHT INTO THAT AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR AND MODERATE WINDS LAST INTO THE
EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO REDUCE IN THE MI EVENING AS CLOUD COVER
BEGINS TO REBUILD. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FILL OVER THE TERMINALS INTO
THE EARLY NIGHT AS WINDS CONTINUE TO REDUCE. CIGS FALL TO IFR LEVELS
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CIGS ERODE INTO THE LATE MORNING AS
MODERATE WINDS BUILD.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 911 AM PDT MON JUN 2 2025
ROUGH SEAS AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 20 FT CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AND UP TO 15 FT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
GRADUALLY EASE BY TUESDAY BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH WITH ELEVATED
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 10 TO 16 FT CONTINUING LATE
MONDAY THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...BAIN
LONG TERM....BAIN
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...MURDOCK
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