564
FXUS66 KMTR 031016
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
316 AM PDT TUE JUN 3 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 316 AM PDT TUE JUN 3 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO AND THEN MODERATE FOR THE LATER
PORTION OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED EACH DAY,
WITH PORTIONS OF THE WEST DELTA, WITHIN GAPS AND CHANNELS, AND
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN POTENTIALLY EXPERIENCING GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM PDT TUE JUN 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-NIGHTTIME AND MORNING STRATUS, PERHAPS PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE
COAST.
-NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
-INCREASED BREEZES ACROSS THE WEST DELTA/AREAS OF COMPLEX TERRAIN
ANOTHER INTERESTING NIGHT OF SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR US. THE CUTOFF
LOW WE'VE BEEN TRACKING ALONG OUR COAST THIS WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY
WEST OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA THIS MORNING. FAIRLY DRY AIR IS NOTICED
IN THE LOW WATER VAPOR CHANNEL WHILE THERE IS SOME MOISTURE AND THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS. WE CAN SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TRYING TO STREAM
FROM THE VALLEY IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL COAST COUNTIES, OTHERWISE THE
MAIN THING WE'RE WATCHING THIS MORNING IS THE STRATUS. IT HAS TAKEN
A LITTLE LONGER TO FILL THAN EXPECTED WITH THE BAY AREA COUNTIES
STARTING TO SEE A GOOD PUSH. HERE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, IT IS
TAKING EVEN LONGER TO RETURN. EXPECT THE STRATUS DECK TO INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WHICH SHOULD LEAVE A GOOD CHUCK OF THE
COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND INTERIOR VALLEYS CLOUDY BY DAYBREAK. PATCHY
DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN CLEARING OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING, CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY
THE AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE AN EXCEPTION FOR COMMUNITIES
ALONG THE COAST. AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE WHERE GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WEST DELTA, WITHIN GAPS AND CHANNELS, AND ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM PDT TUE JUN 3 2025
-GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THE UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED INTO SOUTHERN CA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BEFORE BECOMING MORE OF A LONG WAVE LATER THAT
DAY. TO OUR EAST, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHICH WILL LEAVE US ON THE CUSP OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW. NONETHELESS, THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND FOR WED AND THU AND LIKELY LEAD TO THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS
SURGING IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOKING BEHIND THURSDAY,
ENSEMBLE, CLUSTER ANALYSIS, AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH TRYING TO PUSH BACK IN TO SOUTHERN CA PUSHING THE EASTERN
PACIFIC HIGH MORE TOWARDS THE PACNW. THIS GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORS THE
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE PACNW AND NORTHERN CA INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND WE'VE SEEN OVER
LAST FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 952 PM PDT MON JUN 2 2025
IT'S CLEAR /VFR/ EXCEPT KHAF REPORTS MVFR IN MIST. ONSHORE WINDS
WILL USHER COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG /MVFR-IFR/ INLAND TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER WILL COMPRESS OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS
LIKELY MVFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
A FEW PATCHES OF VALLEY FOG /LIFR-IFR/ MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. STRATUS /IFR/
DEVELOPS BY 12Z TUESDAY, MIXING OUT TO VFR 17Z TUESDAY. WEST WIND
LOWERING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT NORTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND REDEVELOPING TUESDAY, GUSTY TO 25
KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HREF OUTPUT SHOWS STRATUS
/IFR/ REDEVELOPS BY 11Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING, THEN
INCREASING PROBABILITY OF STRATUS /MVFR-IFR/ DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. STRATUS MIXING OUT BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS EXCEPT LOCALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HREF OUTPUT SHOWS STRATUS
/IFR/ REDEVELOPS TUESDAY EVENING (03Z WEDNESDAY).
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM PDT TUE JUN 3 2025
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL
KEEP BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS NORTH OF PIGEON POINT. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF
POINT REYES WITH STRONG GALE FORCE GUSTS. THE STRONG WINDS WILL
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH STEEP WIND WAVES. SOUTH OF PIGEON
POINT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES
10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...MM
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