656
FXUS66 KMTR 031627
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
927 AM PDT TUE JUN 3 2025
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 316 AM PDT TUE JUN 3 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO AND THEN MODERATE FOR THE LATER
PORTION OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED EACH DAY,
WITH PORTIONS OF THE WEST DELTA, WITHIN GAPS AND CHANNELS, AND
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 926 AM PDT TUE JUN 3 2025
WE'RE KEEPING AN EYE ON SOUTHERN MONTEREY CO AS LINGERING HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH SLO CO AND IS NEAR THE CWA
BOARDER. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME LIGHTNING ACTICVITY IN HANFORD
AND OXNARD'S CWAS, NOT MUCH HAS MADE IT TO OUR CWA.
ADDITIONAL THINGS WE'RE KEEPING TRACK OF INCLUDE THE ATYPICAL
STRATUS PATTERN AS WE SWITCH BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE TO HIGH PRESSURE
PATTERN AS WELL AS SOME HAZE IN THE AREA AS SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN
WILDFIRES CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
-MURDOCK
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM PDT TUE JUN 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-NIGHTTIME AND MORNING STRATUS, PERHAPS PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE
COAST.
-NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
-INCREASED BREEZES ACROSS THE WEST DELTA/AREAS OF COMPLEX TERRAIN
ANOTHER INTERESTING NIGHT OF SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR US. THE CUTOFF
LOW WE'VE BEEN TRACKING ALONG OUR COAST THIS WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY
WEST OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA THIS MORNING. FAIRLY DRY AIR IS NOTICED
IN THE LOW WATER VAPOR CHANNEL WHILE THERE IS SOME MOISTURE AND THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS. WE CAN SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TRYING TO STREAM
FROM THE VALLEY IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL COAST COUNTIES, OTHERWISE THE
MAIN THING WE'RE WATCHING THIS MORNING IS THE STRATUS. IT HAS TAKEN
A LITTLE LONGER TO FILL THAN EXPECTED WITH THE BAY AREA COUNTIES
STARTING TO SEE A GOOD PUSH. HERE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, IT IS
TAKING EVEN LONGER TO RETURN. EXPECT THE STRATUS DECK TO INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WHICH SHOULD LEAVE A GOOD CHUCK OF THE
COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND INTERIOR VALLEYS CLOUDY BY DAYBREAK. PATCHY
DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN CLEARING OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING, CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY
THE AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE AN EXCEPTION FOR COMMUNITIES
ALONG THE COAST. AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE WHERE GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WEST DELTA, WITHIN GAPS AND CHANNELS, AND ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM PDT TUE JUN 3 2025
-GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THE UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED INTO SOUTHERN CA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BEFORE BECOMING MORE OF A LONG WAVE LATER THAT
DAY. TO OUR EAST, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHICH WILL LEAVE US ON THE CUSP OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW. NONETHELESS, THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND FOR WED AND THU AND LIKELY LEAD TO THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS
SURGING IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOKING BEHIND THURSDAY,
ENSEMBLE, CLUSTER ANALYSIS, AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH TRYING TO PUSH BACK IN TO SOUTHERN CA PUSHING THE EASTERN
PACIFIC HIGH MORE TOWARDS THE PACNW. THIS GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORS THE
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE PACNW AND NORTHERN CA INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND WE'VE SEEN OVER
LAST FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 427 AM PDT TUE JUN 3 2025
ATYPICAL MARINE LAYER COVERAGE THIS MORNING AS THE DEPTH IS NEAR
2K FEET, BUT COVERAGE IS LACKING FOR SOME TERMINALS AND INSIDE SF
BAY. CLEARING OF MVF TO IFR CIGS WILL OCCUR MID MORNING WITH VFR
MOST TERMINALS (EXCEPT KHAF) THSI AFTERNOON . NOT A SOLID RETURN
FOR CIGS TONIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO VEER OFFSHORE. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
VICINITY OF SFO...FORCE FIELD IS CURRENTLY UP AS CIGS REMAIN NW
OF TERMINALS AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. REMOVED PREVAILING CIGS
AND MAY THEM TEMPO FOR THE OCCASIONAL CIG THAT DRIFTS OVER THE
TERMINAL.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CIGS AROUND MONTEREY HAVE BEEN
DISAPPEARING AND REAPPEARING LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. TREND IS GETTING WORSE SO THINK CIGS WILL ULTIMATELY
FOR. DEVELOPED CIGS LINGER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 926 AM PDT TUE JUN 3 2025
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL
SUPPORT NEAR GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR GALE
FORCE WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL BE OVER THE OUTER WATERS
NORTH OF POINT REYES WITH STRONG GALE FORCE GUSTS. SOUTH OF
PIGEON POINT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY. THE
DELTA BREEZE WILL ALSO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING
IN HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAN PABLO BAY
AND WEST DELTA REGIONS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES
10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...BAIN
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