331
FXUS66 KMTR 040356
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
856 PM PDT TUE JUN 3 2025
..NEW UPDATE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 205 PM PDT TUE JUN 3 2025
CLOUDY COASTAL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND CLEARING AFTERNOONS
WILL THE PREVAILING PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COASTAL AREAS
LOOK TO PEAK INTO THE 60S WHILE MORE INTERIOR AREAS STICK TO THE
80S. THE OVERNIGHTS KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S. EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING
AND DRYING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 851 PM PDT TUE JUN 3 2025
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS WE BEGIN TO SEE HINTS
OF THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS BEGIN TO FILL BACK IN ALONG THE COAST
AFTER A SERIES OF OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL EDDIES HELPED CLEAR OUT MOST
OF OUR COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT AROUND OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM PDT TUE JUN 3 2025
THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AFFECTING SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY HAS
CALMED AS THE HIGH-BASED CONVECTION SUBSIDED AND THE AIRMASS HAS
MOVED INTO THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT.
THE COMPLEX OF EDDIES FLOWING DUE WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO HAVE PULLED
MUCH OF THE LOW STRATUS OUT TO THE SEA, ALLOWING FOR EARLIER
CLEARING THAN YESTERDAY AND IMPROVED COASTAL WARMING. THIS HAS ALSO
ALLOWED FOR A BREAK IN THE LOCAL PATTERN THAT HELPED PULL SOME OF
THAT SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES INTO THE AREA OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS, CAUSING SOME IMPROVEMENTS IN THE HAZIER CONDITIONS.
CLOUDIER CONDITIONS AND POCKETS OF FOG LOOK TO MAKE A STRONGER
COMEBACK TONIGHT, BUT THE OSCILLATIONS OUT TO SEA LOOK TO PREVENT
CLOUD COVER FROM FLOWING INTO THE SOUTHER SF BAY. SO WHILE CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MUCH OF THE NORTH BAY, MONTEREY BAY,
AND ALONG THE COAST, SFO AND OAKLAND AS WELL AS THE SOUTH BAY LOOK
TO STAY MOSTLY CLEAR.
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE RAN THROUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL
DRIZZLE AND MIST WITH A FINE-TOOTHED COMB, BUT THE PATTERN SEEMS
MORE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHES OF FOG INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY
IN THE FAVORED NORTH BAY VALLIES, COASTAL SONOMA, AND THE NORTHERN
MONTEREY BAY.
ASIDE FROM SOME ADDITIONAL EDDY ACTIVITY OFF THE COAST, THE REGION
BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO A MORE TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN FOR THE
MID WEEK. CLOUDY COASTS AND BAYS IN THE MORNINGS, WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOONS, AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S ON THE COAST TO THE 80S
INTO THE INTERIOR. SOME OF THE MORE INTERIOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
SUCH AS THE GABILAN RANGE, WILL BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVED OVERNIGHT
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES, OFFERING SOME MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE DRY
DAYS FOLLOWED BY FAIRLY DRY NIGHT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM PDT TUE JUN 3 2025
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN LEANS TOWARD A WEAK RIDGING SETUP INTO
THE WEEKEND, CAUSING SOME WARMING AND DRYING, BUT NOTHING EXTREME.
A FEW OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS LOOK TO PEAK IN THE LOW 90S, BUT A
STILL INTACT, YET COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO MITIGATE MUSH
ADDITIONAL WARMING FOR THE MORE COASTAL AREAS. IN FACT, THE
COMPRESSING OF THE MARINE LAYER MAY WRING OUT SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE
IN THE EARLY MORNINGS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.
INTO THE LONGER TERM FORECAST, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN GOES BACK TO
MORE OF A NEUTRAL/ZONAL FLOW PATTERN INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS
WILL OFFER SOME COOLING AND GET BACK TO THAT SUMMER IN SAN FRANCISO
PATTERN. DEEPER INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK, MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE WHICH COULD CALL FOR MORE COOLER AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS, BUT THERE IS STILL MORE POLISHING THAT NEEDS TO BE DONE
IN THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST, SO KEEP CHECKING IN!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 503 PM PDT TUE JUN 3 2025
MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST (HAF, MRY,
SNS) BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
MARINE LAYER WILL BE AROUND 1000 FT WHICH SHOULD KEEP CIGS ON THE
IFR-MVFR BORDER. TAFS REMAIN SLIGHTLY OPTIMISTIC ON TIMING OF
STRATUS RETURN WITH GUIDANCE HINTING THAT WIDESPREAD STRATUS COULD
RETURN CLOSER TO 03Z. KEPT THE SLIGHTLY LATER RETURN AROUND 06Z-09Z
BUT WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON FAST RETURNING STRATUS ALONG THE SF
PENINSULA COASTLINE AND MONTEREY BAY AREAS. WINDS GENERALLY STAY
ONSHORE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT WINDS LOOK TO BRIEFLY SHIFT OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO
ONSHORE FLOW. FOG IS MOST LIKELY OVER THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT
BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL (20-40% CHANCE) FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AT
COASTAL AIRPORTS.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH CIGS DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE SAN MATEO PENINSULA. LEANING MORE TOWARDS STRATUS
REACHING SFO OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE EARLY RETURN OF CIGS ALONG THE SAN
MATEO PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS
MAY START TO DEVELOP AT SFO AS EARLY AS 07Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
IN CIGS BY 09Z. CIGS WILL START TO CLEAR BETWEEN 16-18Z WITH
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOOKING AHEAD TO TOMORROW NIGHT,
INITIAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS MAY RETURN AROUND 06-07Z TOMORROW
NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING BEFORE IFR CIGS ARRIVE BETWEEN 03-06Z. IFR CIGS WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE TOMORROW MORNING WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
AT SNS BY 19-20Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE ON IF MRY WILL CLEAR
TOMORROW, FOR NOW LEANING TOWARDS CIGS NOT CLEARING GIVEN
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE. THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR FOG AND LIFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS
BECOME MORE VARIABLE TO SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO ONSHORE AND STRENGTHENING TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 PM PDT TUE JUN 3 2025
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL
SUPPORT NEAR GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR GALE
FORCE WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL BE OVER THE OUTER WATERS
NORTH OF POINT REYES WITH STRONG GALE FORCE GUSTS. SOUTH OF
PIGEON POINT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY. THE
DELTA BREEZE WILL ALSO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING
IN HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAN PABLO BAY
AND WEST DELTA REGIONS. SOUTHERLY COASTAL JETS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST NEAR THE MONTEREY PENINSULA AND
ALSO ALONG THE SANTA CRUZ COASTLINE. THIS MAY RESULT IN POCKETS OF
ROUGHER SEAS AND STRONGER WINDS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR SF BAY N OF
BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-
60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MURDOCK
LONG TERM....MURDOCK
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...BAIN
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