876
FXUS66 KMTR 041028
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
328 AM PDT WED JUN 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 205 PM PDT TUE JUN 3 2025
CLOUDY COASTAL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND CLEARING AFTERNOONS
WILL THE PREVAILING PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COASTAL AREAS
LOOK TO PEAK INTO THE 60S WHILE MORE INTERIOR AREAS STICK TO THE
80S. THE OVERNIGHTS KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S. EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING
AND DRYING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 241 AM PDT WED JUN 4 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
KEY MESSAGES
-JUNE GLOOM WITH PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE
-BREEZY TO GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW
OVERNIGHT SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT IS DEFINITELY GIVING SOME JUNE
GLOOM VIBES WITH A SOLID STRATUS DECK COVERING: THE COASTAL
AREAS, INTO SF BAY, NORTH BAY VALLEYS, AND SALINAS VALLEY. DECENT
INLAND PENETRATION WITH A MEAGER DEPTH HOVERING AROUND 1200-1500
FEET. PATCHY FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THIS MORNING. IN CLASSIC FASHION THE MARINE LAYER
WILL SLOWLY ERODE BACK TO THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
PREVAILING NW FLOW AND BUILDING ONSHORE FLOW COASTAL AREAS WILL
HOLD ONTO SOME CLOUDS THROUGH OUT THE DAY AND NOT FULLY CLEAR. AS
SUCH, WE'LL SEE A PRETTY LARGE SPREAD WITH SENSIBLE WEATHER ALONG
THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS. AKA THE LAND OF MIRCO-CLIMATES.
COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN COOL AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 70,
WHICH IS SEASONABLY COOL FOR EARLY JUNE. FARTHER INLAND, SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 90S, WHICH IS AT OR SEASONABLY MILD FOR EARLY
JUNE. SPEAKING OF ONSHORE FLOW, SFO-SAC GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 4 TO 5 MB, WHICH IS
PRETTY SOLID. THERE WE'LL SEE SOME STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST, INLAND
VALLEYS,GAPS,AND PASSES. GUSTS 30-40 MPH IN THE WINDIEST
LOCATIONS.
FOR TONIGHT- THE MARINE LAYER WILL RETURN AGAIN WITH MORE COASTAL
DRIZZLE/FOG POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW INLAND PENETRATION
APPEARS TO BE DECENT AGAIN AND WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 325 AM PDT WED JUN 4 2025
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
KEY MESSAGES
-TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP
-MARINE LAYER REMAINS WITH SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE
INTERESTING LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST
WITH RIDGING HEADING INTO ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW INTO THE WEEKEND.
CURRENT SETUP SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE
ALEUTIANS. FARTHER EAST IS A ROBUST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
WEST COAST EXTENDING INTO THE PACNW. ROUNDING THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH ARE EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. SO HOW DOES THIS PATTERN EVOLVE FOR THE LONG TERM? THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL NOSE FARTHER INTO THE PACNW/NORCAL AS PASSING
VORT MAXES/SHORTWAVES DEEPEN/DIG OVER SOCAL WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL GENERALLY KEEP SENSIBLE WEATHER ON REPEAT:
MARINE LAYER WITH COASTAL DRIZZLE/FOG AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES
DEEPENS ENOUGH OFF CA TO BECOME CUT-OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW LEADING
TO ANOTHER MEANDERING UPPER LOW. THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AND
NOSING RIDGE WILL KICK OFF A SUBDUED WARMING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. DESPITE THE WARMING TREND THE MARINE LAYER WILL NOT
COMPLETELY GO AWAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 90S AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCE. COASTAL/BAYS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S. NOT MUCH OF A HEATRISK
CONCERN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GIVEN THE PESKY UPPER LOW
MEANDERING OFF THE COAST ONE ALWAYS HAS TO THINK CONVECTION
POTENTIAL. WHILE SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWS SOME SPOKES OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PASSING OVERHEAD THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AT
THIS TIME SEEMS TO BE CONFINED TO THE SIERRA CREST REGION.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES INLAND AND THIS WILL
BRING A SUBTLE COOL DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.
DEFINITELY SOME NUANCES DURING THE LONG TERM, BUT ALL IN ALL
RATHER QUIET WEATHER FOR OUR REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM PDT TUE JUN 3 2025
STRATUS IS BUILDING BACK IN ALONG THE COASTLINE WITH LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW FAR INLAND STRATUS WILL EXTEND. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH LOW TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CIGS EXTENDING INLAND INTO STS, APC, OAK, AND
SFO. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT STRATUS WILL REACH HAF, MRY, AND SNS
WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE
NAMNEST AND CONSSHORT MODELS WERE DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER JOBS AT
REPRESENTING THE CURRENT STRATUS PATTERN BUT THEY DISAGREE AS TO THE
INLAND EXTENT. IF THE NAMNEST HOLDS TRUE, STRATUS WILL BE GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE COASTLINE BUT IF THE CONSSHORT HOLDS TRUE, STRATUS
WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS LOOKS TO BE A
NIGHT WHERE TAFS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS STRATUS
DEVELOPS. DIURNALLY BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS RETURN DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW WITH LIGHTER WINDS, AT TIMES VARIABLE TO OFFSHORE, EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH STRATUS BUILDING IN ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE SAN MATEO PENINSULA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO
MODERATE AS TO IF STRATUS WILL REACH SFO OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY MAKING IT TO SFO BETWEEN
12-16Z. THAT BEING SAID, GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS TO ARRIVE CLOSER TO 09Z WHICH, IF THAT WERE TO OCCUR, WOULD
LIKELY THEN REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST IN MVFR CIGS BUT MAY SEE SOME IFR CIGS DEVELOP DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY VFR BECOMING IFR-MVFR OVERNIGHT.
INITIAL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE MONTEREY BAY REGION ARE AROUND 1000
FT WITH THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWING THE MARINE LAYER AROUND 1000-
1500 FT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO COMPRESS OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS DROPPING
AND EXPANDING INTO MRY AND SNS. CIGS MAY INITIALLY BE MVFR BUT
SHOULD DROP TO IFR BY 08-09Z. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND
LIFR CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. CIGS LOOK TO
CLEAR BETWEEN 18-20Z TOMORROW BEFORE RETURNING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. WINDS GENERALLY STAY ONSHORE BUT TEMPORARILY SHIFT OFFSHORE
TO AT TIMES VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS WEAKEN.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM PDT TUE JUN 3 2025
GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE FAR OUTER COASTAL WATERS NORTH
OF POINT REYES WITH NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT REYES TO PIGEON POINT. WINDS OVER THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WEAKER
WINDS PERSIST OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS AND OUTER COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF PIGEON POINT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY COASTAL JETS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST NEAR THE MONTEREY PENINSULA AND ALSO
ALONG THE SANTA CRUZ COASTLINE. THIS MAY RESULT IN POCKETS OF
ROUGHER SEAS AND STRONGER WINDS. DIURNALLY BREEZY WINDS REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE SAN PABLO BAY AND THE WESTERN DELTA REGION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR BOATERS.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-
60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...KENNEDY
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