534
FXUS66 KMTR 041904
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1204 PM PDT WED JUN 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 205 PM PDT TUE JUN 3 2025
CLOUDY COASTAL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND CLEARING AFTERNOONS
WILL THE PREVAILING PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COASTAL AREAS
LOOK TO PEAK INTO THE 60S WHILE MORE INTERIOR AREAS STICK TO THE
80S. THE OVERNIGHTS KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S. EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING
AND DRYING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 241 AM PDT WED JUN 4 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
KEY MESSAGES
-JUNE GLOOM WITH PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE
-BREEZY TO GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW
OVERNIGHT SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT IS DEFINITELY GIVING SOME JUNE
GLOOM VIBES WITH A SOLID STRATUS DECK COVERING: THE COASTAL
AREAS, INTO SF BAY, NORTH BAY VALLEYS, AND SALINAS VALLEY. DECENT
INLAND PENETRATION WITH A MEAGER DEPTH HOVERING AROUND 1200-1500
FEET. PATCHY FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THIS MORNING. IN CLASSIC FASHION THE MARINE LAYER
WILL SLOWLY ERODE BACK TO THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
PREVAILING NW FLOW AND BUILDING ONSHORE FLOW COASTAL AREAS WILL
HOLD ONTO SOME CLOUDS THROUGH OUT THE DAY AND NOT FULLY CLEAR. AS
SUCH, WE'LL SEE A PRETTY LARGE SPREAD WITH SENSIBLE WEATHER ALONG
THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS. AKA THE LAND OF MIRCO-CLIMATES.
COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN COOL AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 70,
WHICH IS SEASONABLY COOL FOR EARLY JUNE. FARTHER INLAND, SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 90S, WHICH IS AT OR SEASONABLY MILD FOR EARLY
JUNE. SPEAKING OF ONSHORE FLOW, SFO-SAC GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 4 TO 5 MB, WHICH IS
PRETTY SOLID. THERE WE'LL SEE SOME STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST, INLAND
VALLEYS,GAPS,AND PASSES. GUSTS 30-40 MPH IN THE WINDIEST
LOCATIONS.
FOR TONIGHT- THE MARINE LAYER WILL RETURN AGAIN WITH MORE COASTAL
DRIZZLE/FOG POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW INLAND PENETRATION
APPEARS TO BE DECENT AGAIN AND WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 325 AM PDT WED JUN 4 2025
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
KEY MESSAGES
-TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP
-MARINE LAYER REMAINS WITH SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE
INTERESTING LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST
WITH RIDGING HEADING INTO ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW INTO THE WEEKEND.
CURRENT SETUP SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE
ALEUTIANS. FARTHER EAST IS A ROBUST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
WEST COAST EXTENDING INTO THE PACNW. ROUNDING THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH ARE EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. SO HOW DOES THIS PATTERN EVOLVE FOR THE LONG TERM? THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL NOSE FARTHER INTO THE PACNW/NORCAL AS PASSING
VORT MAXES/SHORTWAVES DEEPEN/DIG OVER SOCAL WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL GENERALLY KEEP SENSIBLE WEATHER ON REPEAT:
MARINE LAYER WITH COASTAL DRIZZLE/FOG AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES
DEEPENS ENOUGH OFF CA TO BECOME CUT-OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW LEADING
TO ANOTHER MEANDERING UPPER LOW. THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AND
NOSING RIDGE WILL KICK OFF A SUBDUED WARMING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. DESPITE THE WARMING TREND THE MARINE LAYER WILL NOT
COMPLETELY GO AWAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 90S AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCE. COASTAL/BAYS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S. NOT MUCH OF A HEATRISK
CONCERN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GIVEN THE PESKY UPPER LOW
MEANDERING OFF THE COAST ONE ALWAYS HAS TO THINK CONVECTION
POTENTIAL. WHILE SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWS SOME SPOKES OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PASSING OVERHEAD THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AT
THIS TIME SEEMS TO BE CONFINED TO THE SIERRA CREST REGION.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES INLAND AND THIS WILL
BRING A SUBTLE COOL DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.
DEFINITELY SOME NUANCES DURING THE LONG TERM, BUT ALL IN ALL
RATHER QUIET WEATHER FOR OUR REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM PDT WED JUN 4 2025
CLOUD COVER IS CLEARING FOR ALL THE TAF SITES WITH HE EXCEPTION OF
HAF WHICH WILL HAVE CIGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO REDUCE. CLOUD COVER BUILDS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE MONTEREY BAY IN THE EVENING, WITH LIFR CIGS
AFFECTING HAF AND IFR CIGS AT THE MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS. A SURFACE
LOW NEARS THE GOLDEN GATE IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING,
LEADING TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IT
WILL ALSO INITIALLY PUSH CLOUD COVER INTO THE SF BAY, OFFERING
INCONSISTENT MVFR CIGS AROUND THE SF BAY AND MOMENTS OF LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. AS THE LOW MOVES SLIGHTLY SOUTH, IT WILL PUSH MORE
CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH BAY TERMINALS AND PULL CLOUD COVER AWAY
FROM SFO AND OAK INTO EARLY THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO ERODE FOR
ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST (WHICH INCLUDES HAF) INTO LATE THURSDAY
MORNING, AS WINDS BUILD AGAIN.
VICINITY OF SFO...EXPECT VFR TO LAST INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MODERATE
TO BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS BUILD IN THE MID AFTERNOON LAST INTO THE
LATE EVENING BEFORE REDUCING. CLOUD COVER FILTERS INTO THE SF BAY IN
THE LATE EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTS LOW CLOUDS FROM IT'S
SOUTHERN EDGE INTO THE BAY IN THE LATE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE LOW
CONTINUES SOUTH INTO EARLY THURSDAY, WHICH WILL CAUSE THE CLOUD
COVER TO MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTH BAY. THIS MEANS ANY FILLING OF
CIGS LOOKS BRIEF, AND THE MORE WEST WINDS LOOK TO HAVE MOMENTS OF
SOUTHERLY WIND. EXPECT CONSISTENT VFR TO RETURN FURTHER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH MODERATE SOUTHWEST BUILDING THAT AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR AND MODERATE WINDS LAST INTO THE
EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO REDUCE IN THE MID EVENING AS CLOUD COVER
BEGINS TO REBUILD AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY WITH IFR CIGS FILLING OVER
THE TERMINALS. CIGS ERODE AT SNS INTO IN THE MID MORNING ON THURSDAY
WHILE LIFTING TO MVFR LEVELS AT MRY. CIGS PUSH BACK INTO THE MARINE
ENVIRONMENT INTO THE LATE MORNING, CALLING FOR VFR AS MODERATE WINDS
BUILD.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM PDT WED JUN 4 2025
WIDESPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE AFFECTING THE WATERS WITH SOME
ZONES SEEING GUSTY WINDS CAUSING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT. THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS CONTINUE TO SEE GALE CONDITIONS.
EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY REDUCE INTO THE LATE WEEK. A SOUTHERLY
COASTAL JET WILL BRING STRONG ONSHORE WINDS TONIGHT IN THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AND IN THE EXPOSED WATERS ACROSS THE GOLDEN GATE.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR SF BAY N OF BAY
BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-
60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...MURDOCK
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