997
FXUS66 KMTR 051749
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1049 AM PDT THU JUN 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 252 AM PDT THU JUN 5 2025
FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH CLOUDY
MORNINGS AND CLEAR AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 252 AM PDT THU JUN 5 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
KEY MESSAGES
-MARINE LAYER PERSISTS
OVERNIGHT SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT ONCE AGAIN REVEALS A SOLID MARINE
LAYER BLANKETING THE COAST AND INLAND VALLEYS. A COMPARISON TO 24
HOURS AGO ALSO SHOWS BETTER STRATUS COVERAGE THIS MORNING AS WELL.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH A DEPTH OF
CLOSE TO 1700-2000 FEET PER PROFILERS. THE DEEPER MARINE LAYER IS
LIKELY DUE TO PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH A SLIGHT DIP IN
500MB HEIGHTS. OTHERWISE, OVERALL SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. MORNING MARINE LAYER, WHICH
INCLUDES LOW CLOUDS, FOG, DRIZZLE, WILL GRADUALLY ROLL BACK TO
THE COAST. JUST LIKE WEDNESDAY, COASTAL AREAS WILL NOT COMPLETELY
CLEAR GIVEN LINGERING ONSHORE FLOW. GIVEN THE DEEP PUSH CLEARING
OF INLAND AREAS WILL BE A SLIGHTLY LATER THAN YESTERDAY.
REGARDLESS STILL EXPECTING INLAND SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH THE COAST UPPER 50S AND 60S AND
INTERIOR 70S TO NEAR 90. ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND
4MB, WHICH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE COAST AND ANY INLAND VALLEY/GAP/PASS.
FOR TONIGHT, MARINE LAYER WILL RUSH BACK INLAND WITH LOW CLOUDS,
FOG, AND DRIZZLE
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 333 AM PDT THU JUN 5 2025
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
KEY MESSAGES
-GRADUAL WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY
HEADING INTO FRIDAY WE'LL SEE A SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
PATTERN. A VERY AMPLIFIED AND WAVY JET RIDES THE RIDGE INTO THE
PACNW BEFORE TAKING A 180 AND DIGGING SW INTO CALIFORNIA. THE
DIGGING JET WILL HELP FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CUT-LOW
OVER THE BAY AREA FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE OR
MEANDER OFF THE CA COAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE LOW
MEANDERS RIDGING DEVELOPS INLAND. WHILE RIDGING WILL BRING A
WARMER WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE NEARBY UPPER LOW WILL
KEEP SOME VARIATION OF A MARINE LAYER INTACT. AS SUCH, WE'LL SEE A
LARGER TEMP SPREAD FROM THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS. WARMEST INLAND
AREAS WILL REACH THE 90S AND TAKE A RUN AT 100 DEGREES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A COOLING TREND LOOKS TO DEVELOP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH BROADER TROUGHING DEVELOPING ALOFT.
ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE THE PESKY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE REGION WITH A SLIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NOT ALL MODELS
SHOW IT, BUT A FEW OF THEM DO HINT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL
SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THE EAST. ADDITIONALLY, A FEW OF THE
CONVECTIVELY HOT MODELS (NAM) EVEN GENERATE SOME MUCAPE OVER THE
N BAY THIS WEEKEND. NOT MENTIONING ANY CONVECTION AT THIS TIME AND
NOT EVEN A NON-ZERO CHANCE, BUT WANTED TO AT LEAST MENTION IT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1049 AM PDT THU JUN 5 2025
MVFR CEILINGS LINGER OVER THE NORTH BAY AND MONTEREY BAY REGION AT
THIS HOUR BUT ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME VFR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT HAF WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EASE AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO RETURN TO THE MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS LATE THIS
EVENING AND THE BAY AREA TERMINALS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE BAY AREA
TERMINALS AS OF THIS WRITING WITH ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CEILINGS TO
RETURN BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, GENERALLY IN THE MVFR RANGE.
CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CEILINGS LINGER AT MRY WHILE SNS HAS
RETURNED TO VFR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN
INCREASE IN ONSHORE WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EARLY RETURN TO
MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS EVENING, LOWERING TO IFR BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1049 AM PDT THU JUN 5 2025
A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZE IS DIMINISHING IN THE OUTER
WATERS WHILE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS, CAUSING
WINDS TO DIMINISH AND ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE. MOSTLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A LONG PERIOD SW
SWELL ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...FLYNN
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