132
FXUS66 KMTR 052027
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
127 PM PDT THU JUN 5 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 125 PM PDT THU JUN 5 2025
SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPS GOING THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS INLAND
ABOUT 3-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE
COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COOLING
TREND APPEARS LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM PDT THU JUN 5 2025
DEJA VU TODAY WITH A DECENTLY DEEP MARINE LAYER (~2000 FEET VIA FORT
ORD PROFILER) AND SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW
OFF THE COAST HAS PROMOTED SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COASTLINE, WHICH
HAS SORT OF REVERSED THE NORM AND BROUGHT MARINE STRATUS INTO SANTA
CRUZ WHILE CLEARING OUT OF MONTEREY. THIS TREND WILL GENERALLY
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE CURRENT FLOW PATTERN FINALLY
DEGRADES AND LESS IMPACTFUL SURFACE FLOW IN RESTORED.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM PDT THU JUN 5 2025
A FEW DEGREES WARMER BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
STOUT, LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US. HOWEVER, AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS, A JET EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW CAUSES THE FORMATION OF A
CUT OFF LOW THAT WILL MEANDER OVER THE WATERS ALONG THE WEST
COAST. WHILE FAR INLAND AREAS HEAT UP, THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL ACT TO
REINFORCE THE MARINE LAYER AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SO, WHILE INLAND AREAS HEAT UP THIS WEEKEND, COASTAL
AREAS MAY ACTUALLY NOT SEE MUCH NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY BE 3 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WHILE
COASTAL AREAS WILL STAY AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, A COOLING TREND LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH REASONABLE
CONFIDENCE AMONG ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS A DEEPER TROUGH PATTERN DIGS
INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1049 AM PDT THU JUN 5 2025
MVFR CEILINGS LINGER OVER THE NORTH BAY AND MONTEREY BAY REGION AT
THIS HOUR BUT ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME VFR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT HAF WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EASE AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO RETURN TO THE MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS LATE THIS
EVENING AND THE BAY AREA TERMINALS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE BAY AREA
TERMINALS AS OF THIS WRITING WITH ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CEILINGS TO
RETURN BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, GENERALLY IN THE MVFR RANGE.
CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CEILINGS LINGER AT MRY WHILE SNS HAS
RETURNED TO VFR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN
INCREASE IN ONSHORE WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EARLY RETURN TO
MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS EVENING, LOWERING TO IFR BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1049 AM PDT THU JUN 5 2025
A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZE IS DIMINISHING IN THE OUTER
WATERS WHILE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS, CAUSING
WINDS TO DIMINISH AND ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE. MOSTLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A LONG PERIOD SW
SWELL ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...RGASS
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