340
FXUS66 KMTR 060024
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
524 PM PDT THU JUN 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 125 PM PDT THU JUN 5 2025
SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPS GOING THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS INLAND
ABOUT 3-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE
COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COOLING
TREND APPEARS LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM PDT THU JUN 5 2025
DEJA VU TODAY WITH A DECENTLY DEEP MARINE LAYER (~2000 FEET VIA FORT
ORD PROFILER) AND SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW
OFF THE COAST HAS PROMOTED SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COASTLINE, WHICH
HAS SORT OF REVERSED THE NORM AND BROUGHT MARINE STRATUS INTO SANTA
CRUZ WHILE CLEARING OUT OF MONTEREY. THIS TREND WILL GENERALLY
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE CURRENT FLOW PATTERN FINALLY
DEGRADES AND LESS IMPACTFUL SURFACE FLOW IN RESTORED.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM PDT THU JUN 5 2025
A FEW DEGREES WARMER BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
STOUT, LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US. HOWEVER, AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS, A JET EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW CAUSES THE FORMATION OF A
CUT OFF LOW THAT WILL MEANDER OVER THE WATERS ALONG THE WEST
COAST. WHILE FAR INLAND AREAS HEAT UP, THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL ACT TO
REINFORCE THE MARINE LAYER AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SO, WHILE INLAND AREAS HEAT UP THIS WEEKEND, COASTAL
AREAS MAY ACTUALLY NOT SEE MUCH NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY BE 3 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WHILE
COASTAL AREAS WILL STAY AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, A COOLING TREND LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH REASONABLE
CONFIDENCE AMONG ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS A DEEPER TROUGH PATTERN DIGS
INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 PM PDT THU JUN 5 2025
CURRENTLY VFR FOR MOST SITES WITH STRATUS BUILDING BACK IN ALONG THE
COASTLINE. WIDESPREAD IFR-MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A
LOW POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY STRATUS TO REACH SJC AND LVK. NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATING FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT PATCHY REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY MAY BE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LIFR CIGS DIRECTLY ALONG THE COASTLINE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
IN THAT SCENARIO. MODERATE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
WINDS EASE OVERNIGHT BEFORE WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
VICINITY OF SFO...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO SFO
AROUND 10Z WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF STRATUS RETURNING PRIOR TO THEN.
CIGS ARE LIKELY TO CLEAR BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH GUIDANCE
SIGNALING A POTENTIAL RETURN AT THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD/SHORTLY
AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR-IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT
WITH AN EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS BETWEEN 00-03Z. STRATUS HAS ALREADY
STARTED TO PUSH INTO SNS AND SHOULD PUSH INTO MRY WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FROM MVFR TO IFR OVERNIGHT
BEFORE CEILINGS RISE MID TO LATE TOMORROW MORNING. BREEZY ONSHORE
WINDS CONTINUE DURING THE DAY TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH LIGHTER,
VARIABLE AT TIMES, WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1049 AM PDT THU JUN 5 2025
A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZE IS DIMINISHING IN THE OUTER
WATERS WHILE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS, CAUSING
WINDS TO DIMINISH AND ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE. MOSTLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A LONG PERIOD SW
SWELL ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...RGASS
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