296
FXUS66 KMTR 251618
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
918 AM PDT WED JUN 25 2025
..NEW UPDATE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 316 AM PDT WED JUN 25 2025
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER CONTINUES WITH THE MARINE LAYER REMAINING
NESTLED IN PLACE. LOOK FOR CLOUDY AND COOL NIGHTS, BREEZY ONSHORE
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND THE STRATUS ERODING FOR
INTERIOR LOCATIONS EACH DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 918 AM PDT WED JUN 25 2025
2000 FOOT MARINE LAYER IN PLACE WITH INLAND CLOUDS STARTING TO
SLOWLY MIX OUT. EXPECT A SLOW CLEARING BACK TOWARDS THE COAST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEACHES/HWY1 CORRIDOR REMAINING CLOUDY.
SFO-SAC GRADIENT AROUND 2 MB THIS MORNING WITH LIGHTER 15 MPH
WINDS (COMPARED TO YESTERDAY) PUSHING OUT INTO THE DELTA. 850 MB
TEMPS AROUND 18-19 CELSIUS TODAY ALONG WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE
WINDS AND A MODESTLY DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON
THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NO UPDATES OF NOTE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME WITH CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK AND INCOMING
12Z GUIDANCE SHOWING NO BIG CHANGES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM PDT WED JUN 25 2025
Y'ALL, ANOTHER NIGHT OF WRITING ABOUT THE STRATUS. IT'S HERE AND
IT'S ESTABLISHED LEADING TO A COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT AND POCKETS OF
FOG. THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 1500-2000FT TONIGHT WHICH
SUPPORTS THE PICTURE FROM SPACE SHOWING STRATUS BLANKETING A GOOD
PORTION OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. IT HAS EVEN SNUCK IT'S WAY
INTO SOLANO AND YOLO COUNTIES! WITH THAT BEING SAID, INTERIOR CLOUDS
SHOULD ERODE BY MID TO LATE MORNING LEADING TO ANOTHER SUNNY DAY.
NEAR THE COAST, CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER. HIGHS FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S TO
MID 90S WHILE COASTAL AREAS OR AREAS STUCK WITH STRATUS HAVE
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S. STRATUS SHOULD
MAKE A RETURN TONIGHT THOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER MIGHT
NOT BE AS DEEP.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM PDT WED JUN 25 2025
ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FOR THURSDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING RETURNING
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH WILL BE PARKED OVER
SOUTHERN CA WHILE ZONAL FLOW TO WEAK RIDGING SETS UP TO OUR NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME, BUT BE NEAR SEASONAL TO SEASONABLY WARM
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 60
DEGREES IN SAN FRANCISCO TO THE 90S FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 434 AM PDT WED JUN 25 2025
CURRENTLY A MIXED BAG OF LIFR-MVFR AT THE TERMINALS WITH THE MARINE
LAYER CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED AT 1,600 FEET ON THE FORT ORD
PROFILER. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR BY THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HAF. UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
EVER SO SLIGHTLY RISE TODAY WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A RELATIVELY
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THAT WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO PENETRATE AS FAR
INLAND, AS SUCH NOT ALL TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO GET CEILINGS
TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TERMINALS SEEING THE
RETURN OF IFR CEILINGS. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY IFR WITH WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH CONFIDENCE
ON THE TERMINAL IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE-MORNING AND WESTERLY WINDS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HREF GIVES THE TERMINAL UP TO A
50% CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS TO RETURN TONIGHT WHILE THE NBM
GIVES UP TO AN 80% CHANCE. THAT BEING SAID, THE TAF IS CONSTRUCTED
WITH A LOW-END MVFR CEILING RETURNING TONIGHT, BUT A REASONABLE BEST
CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSING AND NOT ABLE
TO PENETRATE THROUGH THE SAN BRUNO GAP OR WEASEL ITS WAY AROUND
THE BAY TO THE TERMINAL BEFORE SUNRISE.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...THE SAN MATEO BRIDGE APPROACH WILL LIKELY
CLEAR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY LATE-MORNING. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL
FILTER IN BY 03Z.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY LIFR WITH WESTERLY FLOW AT MRY
AND IFR WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT SNS. BRIEF VFR IS EXPECTED BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CEILINGS RETURNING THIS
EVENING. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM PDT WED JUN 25 2025
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WITH NEAR-GALE FORCE GUSTS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. GALE FORCE GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE COASTAL JET REGIONS OF POINT REYES AND POINT SUR ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR CAZ006-506-508.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-
10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
UPDATE.......RW
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...RGASS
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