230
FXUS66 KMTR 260457
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
957 PM PDT WED JUN 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 200 PM PDT WED JUN 25 2025
A SEASONAL LATE JUNE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH
A WELL ESTABLISHED MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST, SPREADING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG INLAND NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES
RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INLAND BUT FORECAST TO WARM
INTO THE 90S FOR SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM PDT WED JUN 25 2025
FOR THE MOST PART LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED BACK TO THE COAST WITH
ONLY THE USUAL DREARY SPOTS SUCH AS PT REYES, OCEAN BEACH AND THE
MONTEREY PENINSULA HOLDING ONTO LOW CLOUDS WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY ONSHORE WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S SF/HALF MOON BAY TO 60/70S AROUND THE BAY AND 80S INLAND
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER NO REAL HOT
WEATHER TO SPEAK OF WITH ONLY LOWER 90S FOR INTERIOR MONTEREY
COUNTY. THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO BE AROUND 1800 FEET AND SHOULD
SPREAD INLAND ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM PDT WED JUN 25 2025
AN INLAND WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS
WARM TO AROUND 21-22 CELSIUS. PLACES LIKE LIVERMORE AND CONCORD
SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 90S WITH SOME LOCAL NORTHERLY WINDS
OFF MT SAINT HELENA HELPING SANTA ROSA WITH A QUICK UPTICK IN HIGH
TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO HOLD
STEADY ALONG THE COAST KEEPING THE COAST AND BAYS MILD. INTERIOR
TEMPS STAY IN THE LOWER/MID 90S SATURDAY WITH NO BIG CHANGES IN
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
BY SUNDAY A WEAK LOW OFF THE COAST WILL INDUCE SOME SOUTHERLY
WINDS THAT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS
AND THE INTERIOR HIGHS WILL LIKELY DROP IN THE UPPER 80S (VS 90S)
EXCEPT INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY
LIFT/DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER ON SUNDAY WITH SOME MORNING DRIZZLE.
THAT FEATURE MAY INDUCE ENOUGH LIFT AND DIVERGENT FLOW OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA TO INDUCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT THAT WOULD
BE OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA PERHAPS AS CLOSE AS THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
IN MENDOCINO COUNTY AND POINTS NORTHWARD. LONG RANGE FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY WILL DEAL WITH HOW THAT WEAK UPPER CIRCULATION
EVOLVES. THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CUTS THE FEATURE OFF AS A WEAK
CUT-OFF LOW WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST THAT WOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY AND INTO THE
JULY 4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME SHOWS NO
BIG HEAT DOME OVER THE WEST AND ANY MONSOON MOISTURE STAYING
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND DESERTS OF SOCAL THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 957 PM PDT WED JUN 25 2025
THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH VARIES FROM 500 FEET AT POINT SUR PROFILER
TO 1400 FEET FORT ORD. ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAY AREA THE MARINE
LAYER DEPTH VARIES FROM 900 FEET OAKLAND (FROM THE EARLY EVENING
UPPER AIR SOUNDING) TO 1100 FEET AT BODEGA BAY PROFILER. WE ARE
GETTING A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE
THIS EVENING AS WELL. STRATUS AND FOG /IFR-LIFR/ WILL MOVE INLAND
ON ONSHORE WINDS AND WITHIN A SOMEWHAT COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING THEN MIX OUT TO NEAR THE COASTLINE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON THURSDAY. HREF OUTPUT SHOWS AT LEAST PARTIAL STRATUS AND
FOG COVERAGE ALONG THE COASTLINE THIS TIME TOMORROW NIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...A WEST WIND WILL USHER STRATUS /MVFR-IFR/ CEILING
TO SFO AIRPORT, THE CEILING LOWERING TO IFR OVERNIGHT. IFR THURSDAY
MORNING THEN STRATUS MIXES OUT TO VFR BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHERLY ACV-SFO PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND THURSDAY
MAY HELP DELAY ANY POTENTIAL STRATUS INTRUSION THURSDAY EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...STRATUS, FOG AND A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT
DRIZZLE /IFR-LIFR/ MOVING INLAND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
STRATUS AND FOG MIX OUT TO MVFR-VFR BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING,
INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
HREF SHOWS STRATUS AND FOG /IFR/ RETURNING THURSDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 936 PM PDT WED JUN 25 2025
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WITH NEAR-GALE FORCE GUSTS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. GALE FORCE GUSTS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE COASTAL JET REGIONS OF POINT REYES AND
POINT SUR ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL EASE
OVER THE WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ006-506-
508.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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