349
FXUS66 KMTR 260937
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
237 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 227 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2025
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COULD BRING THE CHANCE
FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2025
ANOTHER JUNE GLOOM DAY ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. THE MARINE LAYER IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED AT
1,100 FEET ON THE FORT ORD PROFILER WITH SATELLITE SHOWING STRATUS
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST, THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE GAP, AND DOWN THE
NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY. EXPECT STRATUS TO RETREAT TOWARDS THE COAST
BY LATE-MORNING WITH SOME MIST/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN. YOUR
WEATHER NUGGET OF THE DAY IS THAT THE 00Z 06/26/2025 WEATHER BALLOON
RECORDED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.42 INCHES, THAT IS BELOW
THE 10TH PERCENTILE (0.48 INCHES) FOR THE DAY.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY (THE LAST ONE OF THIS ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDE SEQUENCE) IS IN EFFECT FROM 11PM THURSDAY THROUGH 2AM FRIDAY
FOR BAYSHORE LOCATIONS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND SAN PABLO BAY
FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING NOCTURNAL HIGH TIDE. KNOWN IMPACTS
OCCUR IN BAYSIDE MARIN COUNTY WHERE COASTAL LOCATIONS NEXT TO
RICHARDSON BAY SUCH AS SAUSALITO, TAM VALLEY, MANZANITA, THE
SAUSALITO-MILL VALLEY BIKE PATH, AND THE MANZANITA PARK N RIDE
EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS ALWAYS, DO NOT DRIVE AROUND
BARRICADES OR THROUGH WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2025
TYPICAL JUNE GLOOM/NO SKY JULY LONG TERM FORECAST ON TAP WITH ONE
CAVEAT...
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL THREE DETERMINISTIC MODELS (CANADIAN, ECMWF,
AND GFS) SHOW A NEGATIVELY-TILTED 582 DAM UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OFF
OUR COAST AT 12Z (5AM) MONDAY. WHILE THAT MAY SOUND EXCITING, AS OF
NOW THERE'S NO MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE, BUT POINT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW 0 CAPE, SO INSTABILITY SEEMS TO BE THE MISSING
INGREDIENT FROM THE THREE INGREDIENTS METHOD (LIFT, INSTABILITY,
MOISTURE). AS IS TYPICAL WITH CUTOFF LOWS, THEY ARE NOTORIOUSLY
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST DUE TO THEIR LACK OF JET STREAM SUPPORT. ADD
IN AN ACTIVE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN AND THE FORECAST BECOMES EVEN
MORE COMPLEX - WHICH IS WHAT WE ARE DEALING WITH!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 957 PM PDT WED JUN 25 2025
THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH VARIES FROM 500 FEET AT POINT SUR PROFILER
TO 1400 FEET FORT ORD. ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAY AREA THE MARINE
LAYER DEPTH VARIES FROM 900 FEET OAKLAND (FROM THE EARLY EVENING
UPPER AIR SOUNDING) TO 1100 FEET AT BODEGA BAY PROFILER. WE ARE
GETTING A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE
THIS EVENING AS WELL. STRATUS AND FOG /IFR-LIFR/ WILL MOVE INLAND
ON ONSHORE WINDS AND WITHIN A SOMEWHAT COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING THEN MIX OUT TO NEAR THE COASTLINE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON THURSDAY. HREF OUTPUT SHOWS AT LEAST PARTIAL STRATUS AND
FOG COVERAGE ALONG THE COASTLINE THIS TIME TOMORROW NIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...A WEST WIND WILL USHER STRATUS /MVFR-IFR/ CEILING
TO SFO AIRPORT, THE CEILING LOWERING TO IFR OVERNIGHT. IFR THURSDAY
MORNING THEN STRATUS MIXES OUT TO VFR BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHERLY ACV-SFO PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND THURSDAY
MAY HELP DELAY ANY POTENTIAL STRATUS INTRUSION THURSDAY EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...STRATUS, FOG AND A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT
DRIZZLE /IFR-LIFR/ MOVING INLAND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
STRATUS AND FOG MIX OUT TO MVFR-VFR BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING,
INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
HREF SHOWS STRATUS AND FOG /IFR/ RETURNING THURSDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 936 PM PDT WED JUN 25 2025
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WITH NEAR-GALE FORCE GUSTS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. GALE FORCE GUSTS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE COASTAL JET REGIONS OF POINT REYES AND
POINT SUR ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL EASE
OVER THE WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PDT
FRIDAY FOR CAZ006-506-508.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT
PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...SARMENT
LONG TERM....SARMENT
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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