088
FXUS66 KMTR 280435
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
935 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 252 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2025
JUNE GLOOM CONTINUES WITH CLOUDY COASTAL CONDITIONS, SUNNY
AFTERNOONS, AND RETURNING CLOUD COVER EACH EVENING. TEMPERATURES
PEAK ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY BEFORE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN THIS
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 901 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2025
THE FORECAST GENERALLY PLAYED OUT WELL TODAY WITH A DECENT WARM UP
ACROSS OUR SERVICE AREA. IN GENERAL WE WERE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. AS OF THE 830ISH OBSERVATIONS, TEMPS
ARE STILL IN THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS MANY INLAND PORTIONS,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE VACA RANGE OF NAPA AND THE PINNACLES OF SAN
BENITO. AREA OF ELEVATION WILL NOT COOL WELL TONIGHT. EXPECT MIN
TEMPS ONLY TO DIP INTO THE MID 60S IN THOSE AREAS UNDER A STARRY
NIGHT. AREAS DIRECTLY ADJACENT TO THE PACIFIC WILL SEE, IF NOT
ALREADY, THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REFORM. EXPECT YOUR MIN TEMPS TO
BE IN THE 50S. AREAS ALONG THE BAY WILL DIP INTO THE LOW 50 TO LOW
60S DEPENDING ON WHERE YOU ARE LOCATED.
TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO BE A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY THAN TODAY, BUT
THERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES THAT WE HAVE A REPEAT OF TODAY. FOR
EXAMPLE, LIVERMORE HAS ABOUT A 75% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES
TOMORROW, WHICH WOULD PUT IT IN LINE WITH WHERE THEY WERE TODAY AT
93 DEGREES. SANTA ROSA AIRPORT HAS ABOUT A 65% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 85 DEGREES TOMORROW, WHICH WOULD PUT THEM IN A STONES
THROW OF THE 91 DEGREES THEY HIT TODAY. SO IN SHORT, WHILE
"COOLING" IS EXPECTED, IT WILL ONLY BE BY A FEW DEGREES TOMORROW.
THE BIGGER COOL WILL COME ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE ONLY OTHER THING TO WATCH TONIGHT IS WINDS. A BIT OF OFFSHORE
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY INTERIOR MOUNTAINS, BUT IS SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WEAKER TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY AIR ALONG THE
RIDGES AND MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. THEN
THERE IS THE SOUTHERLY SURGE COMING UP THE COAST. THIS WILL IMPACT
MONTEREY OVERNIGHT, SANTA CRUZ EARLY IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, THEN
DRAG UP THE COAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. IT MAY WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE BAY AS WELL. THIS WILL BE THE START OF THE COOL DOWN
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH.
ENJOY THE REST OF YOUR FRIDAY EVENING ALL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2025
"JUNE GLOOM" REMAINS THE THEME OF THE FORECAST WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TO CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE MARINE LAYER IS CURRENTLY AT A DEPTH OF ABOUT
1200-1500 FT ON THE FORT ORD PROFILER WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO
WEAK TROUGHING MAINTAINING THE MARINE LAYER AROUND ITS CURRENT DEPTH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN REACHING INTO THE LOW 90S. FOR COASTAL AREAS,
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
ALONG THE COASTLINE AND SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN AND INTERIOR VALLEYS ON SATURDAY.
FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AT SITES WITHIN AND BELOW THE MARINE LAYER. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE SAN JOSE CLIMATE SITE HAS ONLY REACHED 80+ DEGREES
TWICE SO FAR THIS MONTH WITH DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2.6
DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL SO FAR THIS MONTH. THIS TREND IS SEEN AT
OTHER SITES ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST BUT JUST HOW MUCH
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL RANGES FROM SITE TO SITE.
OTHER CLIMATE SITES SHOW AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW
NORMAL AT OAKLAND MUSEUM (2.6 DEGREES F), SANTA ROSA (0.4 DEGREES
F), SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN (2.3 DEGREES F), NAPA STATE HOSPITAL (3
DEGREES F), AND MONTEREY (1.3 DEGREES F). THIS IS IN LARGE PART
THANKS TO CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE BAY AREA WHICH ALLOWED THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN
AND BROUGHT COOLER, MOISTER AIR FARTHER INLAND. AS A REFRESHER, THE
MARINE LAYER IS A SURFACE BASED LAYER OF COOLER, MOISTER AIR THAT
FORMS AS A RESULT OF COLD OCEAN WATER COOLING THE AIR DIRECTLY ABOVE
IT. WHEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED, THE MARINE LAYER IS ABLE
TO DEEPEN AND SPREAD FARTHER INLAND, OFTEN RESULTING IN COOLER,
OVERCAST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INVERSELY, WHEN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS OBSERVED, THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES AND STAYS CONFINED
TO THE COASTLINE. THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN CLEAR SKIES AND CAN
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. THE CLASSIC MONIKERS OF "MAY GRAY," "JUNE GLOOM," AND
"FOGUST" ARE OFTEN USED TO DESCRIBE TYPICAL OVERCAST SUMMERTIME
CONDITIONS CAUSED BY THE MARINE LAYER IN COASTAL CALIFORNIA. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ALL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SITES ARE LOCATED
AT ELEVATIONS THAT FALL WITHIN THE MARINE LAYER. FOR SITES ACROSS
THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST AND ELEVATED TERRAIN THAT ARE EITHER
ABOVE OR LESS IMPACTED BY THE MARINE LAYER, TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. FOR EXAMPLE, DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AT PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK ARE RUNNING 2.2 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL
AND 2.5 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL AT MOUNT HAMILTON IN SANTA CLARA
COUNTY. THAT IS TO SAY THERE IS NOT A ONE SIZE FITS ALL ANSWER AS TO
IF TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN NORMAL THIS JUNE AS IT REALLY
DEPENDS ON WHERE YOU ARE AND IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE MARINE LAYER OR
NOT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2025
IN THE LONGER TERM FORECAST, NOT MUCH CHANGES AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ARRIVES SUNDAY AND CONTINUES OUR CURRENT PATTERN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 80S
WHILE AREAS WITHIN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN (ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER)
WILL BE IN THE 90S. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO RISE BY 3-5 DEGREES. THIS IS SHORT LIVED, HOWEVER, WITH
GUIDANCE INDICATING A RETURN TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING BY
FRIDAY. COASTAL AREAS CONTINUE TO BENEFIT FROM THE NATURAL AIR
CONDITIONING THAT IS THE MARINE LAYER WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO 60S THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN
IN TERMS OF STRATUS COVERAGE? THE DAILY PATTERN OF STRATUS
RETURNING OVERNIGHT AND CLEARING MID TO LATE MORNING WILL CONTINUE
FOR COASTAL REGIONS AND PORTIONS OF THE BAY AREA THIS WEEK. IF
YOU'RE LOOKING FOR A PATTERN CHANGE, IT'S NOT LIKELY UNTIL MID-
JULY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PERSISTING
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-JULY BEFORE THE PATTERN FINALLY STARTS TO
SHIFT TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US. THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR
CWA THROUGH JULY 10TH BEFORE SHOWING A SWITCH TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEEKS 3-4 OUTLOOK (JULY 12TH-25TH). THIS IS
STILL A FEW WEEKS AWAY SO WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE FORECAST
CHANGES AS WE APPROACH MID-JULY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 934 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2025
IFR STRATUS DEVELOPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE
AND ACROSS MONTEREY BAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. BREEZY
ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR STRATUS IMPACTS INTO THE SF BAY AND
THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT ALL SF BAY TAFS AT VFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT FOR NOW. STRATUS MIXES OUT IN THE MONTEREY BAY SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST ON SATURDAY SOUTH OF POINT REYES, WITH THE BREEZY
ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVING A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
FOR MORE COASTAL TERMINALS AS A RESULT.
VICINITY OF SFO... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD, WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FOR STRATUS ALONG THE SF BAYSHORE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON BREEZY WINDS DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY, BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THE WIND DIRECTION. MOST CONFIDENT IN THE WINDS COMING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST, BUT SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DEPICTING
POSSIBILITY FOR A MORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE TERMINAL.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... IFR STRATUS DEVELOPS AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS RESUME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 934 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2025
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES PERSIST OVER THE OUTER
WATERS NORTH OF POINT REYES THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF POINT REYES ON SATURDAY.
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS
EASE. THE NEXT ROUND OF ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS, STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS BEGINS TUESDAY
AND CONTINUES THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KENNEDY
LONG TERM....KENNEDY
AVIATION...DIALH
MARINE...DIALH
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