569
FXUS66 KMTR 281003
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
303 AM PDT SAT JUN 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 257 AM PDT SAT JUN 28 2025
JUNE GLOOM CONTINUES WITH CLOUDY COASTAL CONDITIONS, SUNNY
AFTERNOONS, AND RETURNING CLOUD COVER EACH EVENING. TEMPERATURES
COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS AND REACHES
FARTHER INLAND. THE DAY TO DAY PATTERNS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM PDT SAT JUN 28 2025
THIS MORNING HAS A VERY SIMILAR COASTAL STRATUS PATTERN COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT. THE KEY DIFFERENCE IS THE SLIGHTLY MORE COMPRESSED
MARINE LAYER OFFERING LOWER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND BETTER CHANCES OF
COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG. THE FEED OF MARINE CLOUDS TO THE IMMEDIATE
COAST LOOKS TO PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH MAYBE A FEW PASSING
MOMENTS OF CLEARING. AREAS SLIGHTLY INLAND WILL SOME LATE MORNING
CLEARING, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE VERY EDGE OF
CLOUD COVER TO THE CLEARING AREAS. THESE ARE ALSO THE AREAS THAT ARE
THE HARDEST TO PIN DOWN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE SOONER A SPOT CLEARS, THE WARMER IT GETS, BUT THE NEXT TOWN OVER
MAY NOT CLEAR AT ALL. BUT THIS IS JUST HOW THE JUNE GLOOM PATTERN
WORKS AND THIS PATTERN HOLDS STRONG FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.
FOR THE AREAS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY, EXPECT HIGHS TO PEAK IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S WITH DRIZZLE AND POCKETS OF FOG TO BOTH START AND
END THE DAY. AREAS THAT SEE SOME CLEARING WILL BE BREEZIER AND PEAK
AROUND 70 DEGREES. FARTHER INLAND IS WHERE WE BEGIN TO SEE THE 80S
AND 90S WITH THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN THE FARTHEST OF THE FAR
INTERIOR.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE QUICKER TO MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THE DEEPENING
AND EXPANSION OF THE MARINE LAYER WILL ALLOW THAT CLOUD COVER TO
FILTER INTO THE SLIGHTLY MORE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PROVIDE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE INTO THE LATE NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM PDT SAT JUN 28 2025
A WEAK TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND ALLOW IT TO EXPAND FARTHER
INLAND. THIS TROUGH AND LOW COMBO WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION, AND NOW THE LONGER TERM MODELS HINT AT FURTHER TROUGHING
IN ITS WAKE.
THIS WILL KICK OFF A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR THE MORE INTERIOR
AREAS IN THE EARLY WORK WEEK WITH THAT INCREASING MARINE INFLUENCE
AND ONSHORE FLOW. AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL SEE STABLE TEMPERATURES
AS THE CLOUD COVER BECOMES VERY PERSISTENT. THE SLIGHTLY MORE INLAND
AREAS WILL SEE MORE PRONOUNCED COOLING AS THE CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
LAST LONGER INTO THE MORNINGS AND EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOONS. IT WILL
BE THE MATTER OF A FEW MILES BETWEEN A CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND A SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. VERY TYPICAL FOR
JUNE GLOOM!
AND THIS IS WHAT OUR PATTERN LOOKS LIKE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AFTER THE COOLING PLATEAUS IN THE EARLY WORK WEEK: CLOUDY AND FOGGY
MORNINGS AND EARLY AFTERNOONS, BREEZY IN THE AREAS THAT SEE CLEARING
SKIES, WARM AND DRY IN THE AREAS THAT STAY CLEAR, AND REPEAT.
THE VERY LONG TERM FORECAST SHOWS ZONAL FLOW BECOMES FAVORABLE AFTER
THE TROUGHING PATTERNS EXIT. THIS HINTS AS SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN
MARINE INFLUENCE, BUT NOT BY MUCH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 934 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2025
IFR STRATUS DEVELOPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE
AND ACROSS MONTEREY BAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. BREEZY
ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR STRATUS IMPACTS INTO THE SF BAY AND
THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT ALL SF BAY TAFS AT VFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT FOR NOW. STRATUS MIXES OUT IN THE MONTEREY BAY SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST ON SATURDAY SOUTH OF POINT REYES, WITH THE BREEZY
ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVING A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
FOR MORE COASTAL TERMINALS AS A RESULT.
VICINITY OF SFO... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD, WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FOR STRATUS ALONG THE SF BAYSHORE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON BREEZY WINDS DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY, BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THE WIND DIRECTION. MOST CONFIDENT IN THE WINDS COMING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST, BUT SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DEPICTING
POSSIBILITY FOR A MORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE TERMINAL.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... IFR STRATUS DEVELOPS AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS RESUME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM PDT SAT JUN 28 2025
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS NORTH OF POINT REYES THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF POINT REYES ON LATER
TODAY. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING,
WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS EASE. THE NEXT ROUND OF ELEVATED WAVE
HEIGHTS, STRONG NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
BEGINS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MURDOCK
LONG TERM....MURDOCK
AVIATION...DIALH
MARINE...DIALH
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
X.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page