947
FXUS66 KMTR 291008
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
308 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 306 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2025
JUNE GLOOM CONTINUES TO BRING CLOUDY COASTAL CONDITIONS, SUNNY
AFTERNOONS, AND CLOUD EVENINGS. THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS JUNE GLOOM PERSISTS AND A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND BEGINS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2025
THE MARINE LAYER EXPANSION IS BEGINNING AND HAS MADE FOR A NIGHT OF
INCREASES COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG, ALONG WITH A MUCH MORE FAR
REACHING PUSH OF MARINE STRATUS INLAND. THE SALINAS VALLEY IS
SHOWING MUCH MORE CLOUD INTRUSION THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS AND THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO SEE THAT CLOUD COVER FILTER
IN.
THE FEED AND THE THICKNESS OF THE MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE IT
SLOWER TO ERODE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT EVERYWHERE ASIDE FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES AROUND NOON. THIS WILL
MEAN THAT SOME OF THOSE VALLEYS THAT STAYED CLEAR IN THE MORNING
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FROM THE REDUCED
AMOUNT OF TIME IN THE SUN. HIGHS WILL BE LARGELY THE SAME FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST (UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S) AS WELL AS THE INTERIOR (80S
AND 90S FOR THE FAR INTERIOR) BUT WITH SLIGHTLY IMPROVED HUMIDITIES.
WINDS LOOK TO BE MODERATE TO BREEZY INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH CLOUD COVER QUICK TO REBUILD IN THE EVENING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2025
THE SLOW MOVING LOW AND TROUGH COMBO FOCUSES OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY AND JUST ABOUT GRINDS TO A HALT FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OF
THE ONSHORE FLOW AND SETTLE THE MARINE LAYER TO AROUND 2000 FT AND
ALLOW FOR THE MARINE INFLUENCE TO SPREAD FAIRLY FAR INLAND.
THERE IS AN INTERESTING FACTOR THAT THIS LOW IS ADDING TO THE
FORECAST MIX: THE VERY SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION PULLING INTO
THE NORTH BAY MTNS. FARTHER NORTH AS WELL AS INTO THE SACRAMENTO
VALLEY, THESE CHANCES LOOK FAR BETTER, BUT WERE'RE STILL SETTING UP
WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH BAY (2-5%)
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. OUR CHANCES REMAIN LOWER BECAUSE OUR
COOLER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WORKING HARD AGAINST
ANYTHING DEVELOPING, OR SUSTAINING ANYTHING MOVING INTO BAY AREA
FROM THE NORTH.
OUTSIDE OF THAT EXCITEMENT, THE FORECAST REALLY SETTLES INTO A STEADY
DAILY PATTERN. THE LOW AND TROUGH COMBO LASTS INTO THE MID WEEK AND
GETS REPLACED BY ANOTHER TROUGHING PATTERN. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
MARINE LAYER FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED AROUND THE 2000 FT MARK WITH
THE NIGHTLY INLAND PUSHES LEADING TO FAR REACHING LOW CLOUD COVER.
SO THE PATTERN OF:
-CLOUDY MORNINGS WITH BREEZY, SUNNY AFTERNOONS INLAND AREAS
-CONSTANTLY CLOUDY COASTS
-WARM, DRY INTERIOR AREAS
CONTINUES THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH ONLY SOME SLIGHT VARIATIONS ON
THE CLEARING TIMES FOR THE INLAND AREAS AFFECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND THE CHANGE IN FLOW SLIGHTLY REDUCING FOG AND DRIZZLE CHANCES IN
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
AND WHILE SOME FOLK AREN'T THE BIGGEST FAN OF JUNE GLOOM AND "NO SKY
JULY", REMEMBER THIS IS KEEPING A FAIR MOISTURE FEED IN THE AREA,
AND HELPS KEEP US OUT OF CRITICAL FIRE DANGER. THE CLOUD COVER ALSO
HELPS THE NIGHT SHIFT SLEEP BETTER DURING THE DAY, BUT THAT'S MORE
OF A PERSONAL PLUS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 956 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2025
IFR-LIFR STRATUS IS SET UP AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BEGINNING TO
INTRUDE INLAND, WITH STRATUS EXPANDING ACROSS THE MONTEREY BAY
REGION AND FLOWING INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY AND THROUGH THE GOLDEN
GATE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A CEILING AT SJC THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF SUNDAY MORNING BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA, WHICH IS
REFLECTED IN THE TAF UPDATE. INLAND STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE IMMEDIATE COAST REMAINING SOCKED IN.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST RESUMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH AN
ONSHORE WIND PATTERN PERSISTING AT THE TERMINALS.
VICINITY OF SFO... VFR THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH IFR
STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS PERSIST
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD RESUME BY THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY
EVENING, LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A CEILING AT THE TERMINAL BEFORE THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE AT OAK.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... IFR-LIFR CEILINGS AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS RESUME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE STRATUS RETURNING EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH TODAY ALONG WITH EASING WINDS. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS TODAY WHILE SOUTHERLY BREEZES
PERSIST ALONG THE COAST OF POINT REYES. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES
AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MURDOCK
LONG TERM....MURDOCK
AVIATION...DIALH
MARINE...JM
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