162
FXUS66 KMTR 080105
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
605 PM PDT MON JUL 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1246 PM PDT MON JUL 7 2025
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
PATCHY MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST.
- LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST.
- SLIGHT RISK (20-40%) OF EXTREME HEAT FOR FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST JULY 15TH-17TH.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1246 PM PDT MON JUL 7 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
HIGH PROBABILITY FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REMAIN AT THE COAST TODAY AND
WILL THEN PENETRATE INLAND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS TONIGHT. THIS IS
AS AN APPROXIMATELY 2,000 FOOT MARINE LAYER REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, DO EXPECT COASTAL DRIZZLE IN THE FAVORED
SPOTS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
WITH THE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST WEST OFF OF
THE BAY AREA/CENTRAL COAST, EXPECTING ANOTHER COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY
FOR TUESDAY. THE INTERIOR WILL CLEAR OUT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S TO 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND UPPER 50S TO 60S ALONG
THE COASTLINE (SOME 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE). THE COOLER
COASTAL AREAS IS WHERE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THOUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 203 AM PDT MON JUL 7 2025
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THE CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE WILL START TO
WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTHWARD BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND ALONG
THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER. AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL START TO COMPRESS AND
SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, SOUTHERN NEVADA, AND
ARIZONA WHERE HEAT PRODUCTS ARE SET TO GO INTO EFFECT FOR THOSE
REGIONS LATER THIS WEEK. THE FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST AND BAY AREA. TO START THINGS OFF, A WARMING
TREND IS ON TRACK TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY WITH MOST SITES TO SEE NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS WARM BACK INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST
OF THE INTERIOR. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A
FLATTER, MORE ZONAL TO SLIGHT TROUGHING OVER THE BAY AREA. WHILE
WE ARE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WARMING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, THE MORE ZONAL TO SLIGHT TROUGHING WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE TO OUR SOUTH WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO BE
THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST WHICH IS
ON THE EDGE OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST WILL BE
IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN TERMS OF
HEATRISK, POCKETS OF MODERATE HEATRISK CONTINUE ACROSS URBAN IN
THE BAY AREA, INTERIOR NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS, AND FAR INTERIOR
CENTRAL COAST. REMEMBER TO TAKE BREAKS AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER
IF PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOORS ACTIVITIES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY INTO THE 80S TO 90S OVER THE WEEKEND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE DISTINCT ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR CENTRAL
COAST WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S OVER
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A
FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF MODERATE HEATRISK WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
URBAN AREAS AND THE NORTH BAY INTERIOR MOUNTAINS BUT WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO BE VERY IMPACTFUL. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
ONSHORE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH LOCALLY BREEZIER WINDS ACROSS
MOUNTAIN GAPS AND PASSES (ALTAMONT PASS, SALINAS VALLEY).
AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM, BOTH SMALL AND LARGE FUELS ARE
DRYING OUT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
FURTHER DRYING WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS DOES RESULT IN
LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER, WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WHILE WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND ONSHORE, SMALL FUELS
HAVE CURED AND LARGER FUELS ARE DRYING OUT SO EXTREME CAUTION IS
NEEDED IF PARTICIPATING IN ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES INVOLVING SPARKS
OR FLAMES. REMEMBER, MOST WILDFIRES ARE STARTED BY HUMAN ACTIVITIES.
ONE LESS SPARK, ONE LESS WILDFIRE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 PM PDT MON JUL 7 2025
IFR AND MVFR CIGS ARE BUILDING ALONG THE COAST AND ARE BEGINNING TO
MOVE INLAND AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY AND LOOK TO FILL OVER THE
TERMINALS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS REDUCE ACROSS THE REGION
INTO THE EVENING AND CIGS LOOK TO FALL FURTHER AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD LATER INTO THE NIGHT, AFFECTING THE NORTH BAY AND SF BAY
TERMINALS AS WINDS CONTINUE TO REDUCE. INLAND CLEARING BEGINS IN THE
MID MORNING WITH MOST TAF SITES GOING VFR IN THE LATE MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE HAF, WHICH KEEPS CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS LOOK TO STAY LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
INCREASE INTO LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO
REDUCE INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS CIGS BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE
COAST.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR LASTS INTO THE LATE NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS THATS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FILL
OVER THE TERMINAL INTO THE LATE NIGHT AND ERODE INTO THE LATE
MORNING AS MODERATE WEST WINDS ARRIVE. THESE WINDS REDUCE INTO THAT
EVENING AS SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ENTER THE SF BAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS AREA BUILDING AROUND THE MONTEREY
BAY, FILLING AT SNS AND WILL FILL OVER MRY INTO THE EVENING. AS
WINDS REDUCE OVERNIGHT, CIGS LOOK TO FALL TO IFR LEVELS, WITH SOME
POCKETS OF MIST AND DRIZZLE IN THE AREA.
WINDS BECOME MODERATE INTO MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING AS CIGS
ERODE OVER THE TERMINALS, BUT EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO LINGER OVER THE
MONTEREY BAY ITSELF. CLOUD COVER BEINGS TO PUSH INLAND AS WINDS
REDUCE INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS FILLING OVER THE
TERMINALS.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 604 PM PDT MON JUL 7 2025
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND MODERATE SEAS.
WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE STANDARD NW DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO A
MODERATE TO STRONG BREEZE BY WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
BUILD ROUGH SEAS BY THURSDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....KENNEDY
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...FLYNN
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