114
FXUS66 KMTR 081002
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
302 AM PDT TUE JUL 8 2025
..NEW MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 118 AM PDT TUE JUL 8 2025
- ONE MORE DAY OF COOL CONDITIONS BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH PATCHY MODERATE
HEATRISK ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST.
- LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- SLIGHT RISK (20-40% PROBABILITY) OF EXTREME HEAT IN THE FAR
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST JULY 15-17.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 118 AM PDT TUE JUL 8 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS BLANKET THE COAST AND ARE EXPANDING INTO THE
INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING, WITH COASTAL DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE
UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND UP TO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND DRIFT NORTHWARDS,
BUT IT WILL PROVIDE US ONE MORE DAY OF TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
SEASONAL AVERAGES, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER
80S INLAND, UP TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS OF SOUTHERN
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES, INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S
ALONG THE BAYS, AND INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST. THE ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN THOSE SEEN YESTERDAY, PARTIALLY AS A RESULT OF A
RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT FROM THE WEAKENING LOW, BUT GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE GAPS, PASSES, AND THE
SALINAS VALLEY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 118 AM PDT TUE JUL 8 2025
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
THE DISSIPATING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR THE CALIFORNIA-
OREGON BORDER AND ALLOW A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
TO EXPAND INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHERE HEAT PRODUCTS WILL GO INTO
EFFECT STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUR PART OF THE STATE WILL STILL
EXPERIENCE A WARMING TREND, WITH WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS RISING TO THE 80S
INLAND WITH THE WARMEST SPOTS IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES REACHING THE UPPER 90S. ENSEMBLE MODEL CLUSTER ANALYSIS HAS
BEGIN HOMING IN ON THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST SEEING MORE ZONAL
FLOW AS THE HEAT PEAKS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MODERATING THE HEAT
IMPACTS AS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE SWELTERS. THE INLAND
VALLEYS SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO MIDDLE 90S ON BOTH DAYS,
WHILE THE WARMEST INTERIOR LOCATIONS SEE TEMPERATURES RISING UP TO A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE 100. IN TERMS OF HEATRISK, PATCHES OF MODERATE
HEATRISK ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
NORTH BAY, EAST BAY, AND SOUTH BAY, IN ADDITION TO THE SANTA LUCIA
MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF SAN BENITO COUNTY. REMEMBER TO
TAKE FREQUENT COOLING BREAKS AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER IF
PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON BOTH DAYS.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL COOL SLIGHTLY TO THE
LOWER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE INTERIOR BAY AREA WITH AN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH COMING THROUGH THE WEST COAST, WHILE THE INTERIOR CENTRAL
COAST REMAINS RATHER WARM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT AND ONSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCALLY BREEZIER WINDS
THROUGH THE GAPS, PASSES, AND THE SALINAS VALLEY. FURTHER AFIELD,
LONGER TERM OUTLOOKS SHOW A LEAN TOWARDS TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES INTO THE THIRD WEEK OF JULY.
SMALL FUELS HAVE EFFECTIVELY CURED AND LARGE FUELS ARE CONTINUING TO
CURE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES, WITH FURTHER
DRYING EXPECTED AS THE TEMPERATURES WARM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER THREATS ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY
IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE. EXTREME CAUTION
IS ADVISED IF PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES INVOLVING OPEN
FLAMES AND SPARKS, NOTING THAT MOST WILDFIRES ARE STARTED BY HUMAN
ACTIVITY. ONE LESS SPARK, ONE LESS WILDFIRE!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 933 PM PDT MON JUL 7 2025
IFR AND MVFR CIGS ARE BUILDING ALONG THE COAST AND ARE FILLING
AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY AND LOOK TO FILL OVER THE TERMINALS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. WINDS REDUCE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING AND
CIGS LOOK TO FALL FURTHER AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER INTO THE
NIGHT, AFFECTING THE NORTH BAY AND SF BAY TERMINALS AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO REDUCE. INLAND CLEARING BEGINS IN THE MID MORNING WITH
MOST TAF SITES GOING VFR IN THE LATE MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
HAF, WHICH KEEPS CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS LOOK TO STAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INCREASE INTO LATE TUESDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO REDUCE INTO TUESDAY EVENING
AS IFR/MVFR CIGS BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE COAST, FILLING OVER
THE SF BAY AND MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS, AND THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
LATER THAT NIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR LASTS INTO THE LATE NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF THE MORNING. EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO FILL OVER THE TERMINAL INTO THE LATE NIGHT AND ERODE INTO
THE LATE MORNING AS MODERATE TO BREEZY WEST WINDS ARRIVE. THESE
WINDS REDUCE INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS SCATTERED IFR-LEVEL CLOUDS
ENTER THE SF BAY WHICH WILL FILL OVER SFO LATER THAT NIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS AREA BUILDING AROUND THE MONTEREY
BAY, FILLING AT SNS AND WILL FILL OVER MRY INTO THE EVENING. AS
WINDS REDUCE OVERNIGHT, CIGS LOOK TO FALL TO IFR LEVELS, WITH SOME
POCKETS OF MIST AND DRIZZLE IN THE AREA. WINDS BECOME MODERATE INTO
MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING AS CIGS ERODE OVER THE TERMINALS, BUT
EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO LINGER OVER THE MONTEREY BAY ITSELF. CLOUD
COVER BEINGS TO PUSH INLAND AS WINDS REDUCE INTO TUESDAY EVENING
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS FILLING OVER THE TERMINALS.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM PDT TUE JUL 8 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH MODERATE SEAS. WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONGER WINDS BY THURSDAY, ALONG WITH BUILDING
SEAS BECOMING ROUGH.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIALH
LONG TERM....DIALH
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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