398
FXUS66 KMTR 100048
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
548 PM PDT WED JUL 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 130 PM PDT WED JUL 9 2025
- MINOR TO MODERATE HEATRISK FOR THE INTERIOR BAY AREA AND
CENTRAL COAST.
- LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERIOR
BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 130 PM PDT WED JUL 9 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE WARMING TREND KICKS OFF TODAY AS AS AN AREA OF BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN BUILDS INTO PLACE. EFFECTS OF THIS ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED
WITH LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE OBSERVING
WARMER CONDITIONS THAN WHAT WERE OBSERVED 24 HOURS AGO AS WELL AS
THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSING ABOUT 600 FEET IN 24 HOURS WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. YET, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TODAY. FOG WILL
RETURN TO COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 130 PM PDT WED JUL 9 2025
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
TOMORROW WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
PEAKING NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER FOR ALL
BUT THE FARTHEST INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE AXIS OF THE
LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INLAND. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
ARE IN AGREEMENT OF LONGWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING AGAIN SATURDAY OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND MOVE INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STABLE PATTERN MEANS
MORE OR LESS THE SAME DAILY FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM: INTERIOR
AREAS WILL GET WARM TO HOT WITH TEMPERATURES OF 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR AREAS
ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER WITH MINIMUM DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 20-
30% WITH LITTLE-TO-NO OVERNIGHT RECOVERY, ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
REALIZED WITH THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE, AND STRATUS
WILL COME IN EVERY NIGHT FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 PM PDT WED JUL 9 2025
IFR CIGS ARE BUILDING ALONG THE COAST AND ARE FILLING AT HAF. EXPECT
THE MODERATE TO GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TO REDUCE INTO THE
EVENING AND CIGS LOOK FILL OVER THE MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS IN THE
MID EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME WEAK IN THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AS MOMENTS OF CIGS AFFECT OAK AND APC,
WHILE MRY AND HAF FALL TO LIFR. INLAND CLEARING BEGINS IN THE MID
MORNING WITH MOST TAF SITES GOING VFR IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE HAF, WHICH KEEPS CIGS THROUGH THE
MID AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK TO STAY LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INCREASE INTO LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
EXPECT WINDS TO REDUCE INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS IFR/MVFR CIGS BEGIN
TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE COAST, FILLING OVER HAF AND MONTEREY BAY
TERMINALS.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.GUSTY WINDS LINGER
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE REDUCING TO MODERATE WIND SPEEDS, THESE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY WEST WINDS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING, AND LOOK TO LAST THROUGH THE MID EVENING
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE AGAIN.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE
MONTEREY BAY AND LOOK TO FILL AT MRY IN THE MID EVENING AND SNS INTO
THE NIGHT WITH IFR LEVEL CIGS. WIND BECOME LIGHT IN THE EVENING AND
REDUCE FURTHER INTO THE NIGHT. AS WINDS REDUCE OVERNIGHT, CIGS LOOK
TO FALL TO LIFR LEVELS AT MRY, WITH POCKETS OF MIST AND DRIZZLE.
WINDS BECOME MODERATE INTO MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS CIGS
ERODE OVER THE TERMINALS, BUT EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO LINGER OVER THE
MONTEREY BAY ITSELF UNTIL THE MID AFTERNOON.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 548 PM PDT WED JUL 9 2025
WINDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE WATERS BECOMING FRESH TO STRONG.
THESE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN STRENGTH THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY FOR MOST AREAS, BUT WILL INCREASE TO GALE-STRENGTH FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECT BUILDING ROUGH
SEAS IN THE EXPOSED WATERS ALONGSIDE THESE BUILDING WINDS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...SARMENT
LONG TERM....SARMENT
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...MURDOCK
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