232
FXUS66 KMTR 100449
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
949 PM PDT WED JUL 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 130 PM PDT WED JUL 9 2025
- MINOR TO MODERATE HEATRISK FOR THE INTERIOR BAY AREA AND
CENTRAL COAST.
- LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERIOR
BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 900 PM PDT WED JUL 9 2025
THE MARINE LAYER HAS COMPRESSED TO AROUND 1000 FEET WITH MUCH LESS
WIDESPREAD STRATUS COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 3 DEGREES WARMER
TONIGHT THAN AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO
UP TO 23 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING DIRECTLY ALONG THE
COASTLINE BUT CHANCES DECREASE HEADING INLAND. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODERATE HEATRISK IS EXPECTED ACROSS URBAN
AREAS IN THE BAY AREA, NORTH BAY INTERIOR MOUNTAINS, AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 130 PM PDT WED JUL 9 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE WARMING TREND KICKS OFF TODAY AS AS AN AREA OF BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN BUILDS INTO PLACE. EFFECTS OF THIS ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED
WITH LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE OBSERVING
WARMER CONDITIONS THAN WHAT WERE OBSERVED 24 HOURS AGO AS WELL AS
THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSING ABOUT 600 FEET IN 24 HOURS WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. YET, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TODAY. FOG WILL
RETURN TO COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 130 PM PDT WED JUL 9 2025
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
TOMORROW WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
PEAKING NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER FOR ALL
BUT THE FARTHEST INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE AXIS OF THE
LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INLAND. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
ARE IN AGREEMENT OF LONGWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING AGAIN SATURDAY OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND MOVE INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STABLE PATTERN MEANS
MORE OR LESS THE SAME DAILY FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM: INTERIOR
AREAS WILL GET WARM TO HOT WITH TEMPERATURES OF 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR AREAS
ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER WITH MINIMUM DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 20-
30% WITH LITTLE-TO-NO OVERNIGHT RECOVERY, ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
REALIZED WITH THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE, AND STRATUS
WILL COME IN EVERY NIGHT FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 949 PM PDT WED JUL 9 2025
LIFR CIGS ARE BUILDING ALONG THE COAST AND HAVE FILLED OVER HAF AND
THE MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO REDUCE INTO
THE NIGHT AND BECOME WEAK IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AS
MOMENTS OF CIGS AFFECT OAK AND IFR CIGS FILL AT APC. INLAND CLEARING
BEGINS IN THE MID MORNING WITH MOST TAF SITES GOING VFR IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE HAF, WHICH KEEPS
CIGS THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK TO STAY LIGHT TO MODERATE
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INCREASE INTO LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO REDUCE INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS IFR/MVFR
CIGS BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE COAST, FILLING OVER HAF AND
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS REDUCING TO
MODERATE SPEEDS AND BECOME LIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY
WEST WINDS RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING, AND LOOK TO LAST THROUGH THE
MID EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE AGAIN.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...LIFR CIGS WITH LIGHT WINDS LAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH POCKETS OF MIST AND DRIZZLE AFFECTING VISIBILITIES INTO
THE MORNING. WINDS BECOME MODERATE INTO MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING
AS CIGS ERODE OVER THE TERMINALS, BUT EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO LINGER
OVER THE MONTEREY BAY ITSELF UNTIL THE MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WEAKEN
AGAIN INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH IFR CIGS BUILDING OVER MRY WITH SNS
SEEING CIGS LATER THAT NIGHT.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 548 PM PDT WED JUL 9 2025
WINDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE WATERS BECOMING FRESH TO STRONG.
THESE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN STRENGTH THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY FOR MOST AREAS, BUT WILL INCREASE TO GALE-STRENGTH FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECT BUILDING ROUGH
SEAS IN THE EXPOSED WATERS ALONGSIDE THESE BUILDING WINDS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...SARMENT
LONG TERM....SARMENT
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...MURDOCK
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