471
FXUS66 KMTR 100851
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
151 AM PDT THU JUL 10 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 148 AM PDT THU JUL 10 2025
- TEMPERATURES PEAKING TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH PATCHY MODERATE
HEATRISK ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST.
- LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- GRADUAL COOLING TREND BEGINS MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 148 AM PDT THU JUL 10 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
STRATUS PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO SOME OF THE NEIGHBORING
VALLEYS, WITH THE COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER RESULTING IN LESS STRATUS
COVERAGE INLAND THAN THE LAST NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
HOVER IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, UP TO THE
60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND SOME DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PEAKING TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER
CALIFORNIA, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 90S TO NEAR 102 INLAND,
THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S NEAR THE BAYS, AND THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST. MODERATE HEATRISK SHOULD DEVELOP IN
THE INTERIOR NORTH AND EAST BAYS, THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH BAY, THE
SANTA LUCIA RANGE, AND THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES. THIS CORRESPONDS TO A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES FOR POPULATIONS SENSITIVE TO HEAT, INCLUDING
CHILDREN, THE ELDERLY, PREGNANT WOMEN, AND PEOPLE WORKING OR
LIVING OUTDOORS WITHOUT ACCESS TO ADEQUATE HYDRATION OR COOLING.
HERE ARE SOME HEAT SAFETY TIPS:
* STAY HYDRATED AND DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS.
* WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT, LIGHT-COLORED CLOTHING.
* REDUCE TIME SPENT OUTDOORS OR STAY IN THE SHADE.
* NEVER LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES.
* USE SUNSCREEN IF GOING TO THE COAST OR THE POOL.
LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS AREAS
ABOVE AND INLAND OF THE MARINE LAYER'S INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF
DRY DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF AROUND 15-30% AND LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 30
MPH WILL BE THE MAIN FACTORS BEHIND THE ELEVATED THREAT. HOWEVER,
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE, LEADING TO THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT
BEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN, ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS WHERE LIGHTER
WINDS AND GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 148 AM PDT THU JUL 10 2025
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
MODERATE HEATRISK CONTINUES ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTH BAY,
EAST BAY, AND SOUTH BAY, IN ADDITION TO THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS
AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF SAN BENITO COUNTY, AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAIN AROUND THE SAME AS TODAY'S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLING THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
THROUGH, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 80S TO THE LOWER
90S INLAND AND THE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE BAYS. THE PATTERN
REMAINS RATHER STABLE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH WARM
INLAND TEMPERATURES, COOL COASTAL TEMPERATURES, LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS,
AND LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN THE INTERIOR
DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF THE
WEEK, ENSEMBLE MODEL CLUSTER ANALYSIS POINTS TO AN ERODING RIDGE
WITH A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO
THE WEST COAST, LEADING TO A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THROUGH THE END
OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 949 PM PDT WED JUL 9 2025
LIFR CIGS ARE BUILDING ALONG THE COAST AND HAVE FILLED OVER HAF AND
THE MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO REDUCE INTO
THE NIGHT AND BECOME WEAK IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AS
MOMENTS OF CIGS AFFECT OAK AND IFR CIGS FILL AT APC. INLAND CLEARING
BEGINS IN THE MID MORNING WITH MOST TAF SITES GOING VFR IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE HAF, WHICH KEEPS
CIGS THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK TO STAY LIGHT TO MODERATE
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INCREASE INTO LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO REDUCE INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS IFR/MVFR
CIGS BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE COAST, FILLING OVER HAF AND
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS REDUCING TO
MODERATE SPEEDS AND BECOME LIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY
WEST WINDS RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING, AND LOOK TO LAST THROUGH THE
MID EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE AGAIN.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...LIFR CIGS WITH LIGHT WINDS LAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH POCKETS OF MIST AND DRIZZLE AFFECTING VISIBILITIES INTO
THE MORNING. WINDS BECOME MODERATE INTO MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING
AS CIGS ERODE OVER THE TERMINALS, BUT EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO LINGER
OVER THE MONTEREY BAY ITSELF UNTIL THE MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WEAKEN
AGAIN INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH IFR CIGS BUILDING OVER MRY WITH SNS
SEEING CIGS LATER THAT NIGHT.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 548 PM PDT WED JUL 9 2025
WINDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE WATERS BECOMING FRESH TO STRONG.
THESE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN STRENGTH THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY FOR MOST AREAS, BUT WILL INCREASE TO GALE-STRENGTH FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECT BUILDING ROUGH
SEAS IN THE EXPOSED WATERS ALONGSIDE THESE BUILDING WINDS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PT
ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-
10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT
ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...DIALH
LONG TERM....DIALH
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...MURDOCK
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
X.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page