512
FXUS66 KMTR 101131
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
431 AM PDT THU JUL 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 148 AM PDT THU JUL 10 2025
- TEMPERATURES PEAKING TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH PATCHY MODERATE
HEATRISK ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST.
- LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- GRADUAL COOLING TREND BEGINS MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 148 AM PDT THU JUL 10 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
STRATUS PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO SOME OF THE NEIGHBORING
VALLEYS, WITH THE COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER RESULTING IN LESS STRATUS
COVERAGE INLAND THAN THE LAST NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
HOVER IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, UP TO THE
60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND SOME DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PEAKING TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER
CALIFORNIA, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 90S TO NEAR 102 INLAND,
THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S NEAR THE BAYS, AND THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST. MODERATE HEATRISK SHOULD DEVELOP IN
THE INTERIOR NORTH AND EAST BAYS, THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH BAY, THE
SANTA LUCIA RANGE, AND THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES. THIS CORRESPONDS TO A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES FOR POPULATIONS SENSITIVE TO HEAT, INCLUDING
CHILDREN, THE ELDERLY, PREGNANT WOMEN, AND PEOPLE WORKING OR
LIVING OUTDOORS WITHOUT ACCESS TO ADEQUATE HYDRATION OR COOLING.
HERE ARE SOME HEAT SAFETY TIPS:
* STAY HYDRATED AND DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS.
* WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT, LIGHT-COLORED CLOTHING.
* REDUCE TIME SPENT OUTDOORS OR STAY IN THE SHADE.
* NEVER LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES.
* USE SUNSCREEN IF GOING TO THE COAST OR THE POOL.
LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS AREAS
ABOVE AND INLAND OF THE MARINE LAYER'S INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF
DRY DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF AROUND 15-30% AND LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 30
MPH WILL BE THE MAIN FACTORS BEHIND THE ELEVATED THREAT. HOWEVER,
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE, LEADING TO THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT
BEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN, ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS WHERE LIGHTER
WINDS AND GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 148 AM PDT THU JUL 10 2025
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
MODERATE HEATRISK CONTINUES ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTH BAY,
EAST BAY, AND SOUTH BAY, IN ADDITION TO THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS
AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF SAN BENITO COUNTY, AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAIN AROUND THE SAME AS TODAY'S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLING THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
THROUGH, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 80S TO THE LOWER
90S INLAND AND THE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE BAYS. THE PATTERN
REMAINS RATHER STABLE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH WARM
INLAND TEMPERATURES, COOL COASTAL TEMPERATURES, LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS,
AND LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN THE INTERIOR
DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF THE
WEEK, ENSEMBLE MODEL CLUSTER ANALYSIS POINTS TO AN ERODING RIDGE
WITH A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO
THE WEST COAST, LEADING TO A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THROUGH THE END
OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 423 AM PDT THU JUL 10 2025
THE MARINE LAYER IS IN THE PROCESS OF COMPRESSING, WITH THE 12Z
BALLOON MEASURING IT AT ABOUT 1500FT, AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPRESS
TO AROUND 1000FT LATER TODAY. THAT WON'T HAVE MUCH CHANGE IN THE
TIMING OF CLEARING WE'VE THE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO LIFT BY LATE MORNING AND RETURN LATE THIS
EVENING.
VICINITY OF SFO...LIFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL CLEAR LATE THIS MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHEN
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS RETURN. EXPECT OCCASIONALLY BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON, EASING AFTER SUNSET.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...LIFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH LATE MORNING, WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS RETURNING AROUND
SUNSET AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM PDT THU JUL 10 2025
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS PERSIST TODAY WITH GALE STRENGTH
EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. EXPECT BUILDING ROUGH SEAS IN THE EXPOSED WATERS ALONGSIDE
THE BUILDING WINDS. SEAS AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLACK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT
ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...DIALH
LONG TERM....DIALH
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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