147
FXUS66 KMTR 101722
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1022 AM PDT THU JUL 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 148 AM PDT THU JUL 10 2025
- TEMPERATURES PEAKING TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH PATCHY MODERATE
HEATRISK ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST.
- LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- GRADUAL COOLING TREND BEGINS MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 917 AM PDT THU JUL 10 2025
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF SMOKE FROM THE GREEN
FIRE IN SHASTA COUNTY IS MOVING SOUTH DOWN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY
AND MAY BE HEADING TO THE BAY AREA AS WINDS TURN MORE NE ACROSS
THE NORTH BAY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THE MORNING STRATUS ERODED
VERY QUICKLY, WHICH WILL HELP INLAND TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE
SOME OF THE WARMEST WE'VE SEEN SINCE LATE MAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 148 AM PDT THU JUL 10 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
STRATUS PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO SOME OF THE NEIGHBORING
VALLEYS, WITH THE COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER RESULTING IN LESS STRATUS
COVERAGE INLAND THAN THE LAST NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
HOVER IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, UP TO THE
60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND SOME DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PEAKING TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER
CALIFORNIA, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 90S TO NEAR 102 INLAND,
THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S NEAR THE BAYS, AND THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST. MODERATE HEATRISK SHOULD DEVELOP IN
THE INTERIOR NORTH AND EAST BAYS, THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH BAY, THE
SANTA LUCIA RANGE, AND THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES. THIS CORRESPONDS TO A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES FOR POPULATIONS SENSITIVE TO HEAT, INCLUDING
CHILDREN, THE ELDERLY, PREGNANT WOMEN, AND PEOPLE WORKING OR
LIVING OUTDOORS WITHOUT ACCESS TO ADEQUATE HYDRATION OR COOLING.
HERE ARE SOME HEAT SAFETY TIPS:
* STAY HYDRATED AND DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS.
* WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT, LIGHT-COLORED CLOTHING.
* REDUCE TIME SPENT OUTDOORS OR STAY IN THE SHADE.
* NEVER LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES.
* USE SUNSCREEN IF GOING TO THE COAST OR THE POOL.
LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS AREAS
ABOVE AND INLAND OF THE MARINE LAYER'S INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF
DRY DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF AROUND 15-30% AND LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 30
MPH WILL BE THE MAIN FACTORS BEHIND THE ELEVATED THREAT. HOWEVER,
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE, LEADING TO THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT
BEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN, ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS WHERE LIGHTER
WINDS AND GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 148 AM PDT THU JUL 10 2025
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
MODERATE HEATRISK CONTINUES ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTH BAY,
EAST BAY, AND SOUTH BAY, IN ADDITION TO THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS
AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF SAN BENITO COUNTY, AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAIN AROUND THE SAME AS TODAY'S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLING THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
THROUGH, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 80S TO THE LOWER
90S INLAND AND THE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE BAYS. THE PATTERN
REMAINS RATHER STABLE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH WARM
INLAND TEMPERATURES, COOL COASTAL TEMPERATURES, LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS,
AND LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN THE INTERIOR
DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF THE
WEEK, ENSEMBLE MODEL CLUSTER ANALYSIS POINTS TO AN ERODING RIDGE
WITH A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO
THE WEST COAST, LEADING TO A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THROUGH THE END
OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1021 AM PDT THU JUL 10 2025
CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HAF. STRATUS
WILL STICK TO THE COAST TODAY WITH A SIMILAR FORECAST ON TAP FOR
TONIGHT AS WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT WITH THE PATTERN LARGELY
REMAINING UNCHANGED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AS SUCH,
MOST TERMINALS WILL BE ON THE RECEIVING END OF LIFR-IFR CEILINGS AS
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL
BACK THROUGH THE MORNING, BECOMING WESTERLY WHEN THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE KICKS IN. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. IF A SUB-VFR CEILING WERE TO DEVELOP, IT IS LIKELY THAT IT
WOULD BE IFR. HREF DEPICTS A DONUT HOLE OVER SFO TONIGHT, SO FOR NOW
HAVE TRENDED IN A LATER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SHORTER DURATION AND A BKN
CEILING INSTEAD OF OVC. A REASONABLE BEST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE
THAT THE MARINE LAYER IS TOO COMPRESSED TO PENETRATE THROUGH THE SAN
BRUNO GAP AND THE TERMINAL REMAINS VFR.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY VFR WITH WESTERLY WINDS AT BOTH
TERMINALS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR CEILINGS RETURNING TO BOTH
TERMINALS TONIGHT.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM PDT THU JUL 10 2025
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS PERSIST TODAY WITH GALE STRENGTH
EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. EXPECT BUILDING ROUGH SEAS IN THE EXPOSED WATERS ALONGSIDE
THE BUILDING WINDS. SEAS AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLACK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT
ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...DIALH
LONG TERM....DIALH
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...SARMENT
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