209
FXUS66 KMTR 111006
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
306 AM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 305 AM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
- MODERATE HEATRISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND SOUTH BAY ON FRIDAY
WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND
CENTRAL COAST.
- LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
- GRADUAL COOLING TREND THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 305 AM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PROFILER DATA SHOW THAT THE MARINE LAYER
REMAINS COMPRESSED AROUND 1000 FEET, WITH STRATUS CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL AREAS AND IN THE SALINAS VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TO REMAIN HOLD
WITH STRATUS RETREATING TO THE COAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ANOTHER
WARM AND DRY DAY IS THEN ON TAP, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN
THE UPPER 80S TO 90S FOR MOST INTERIOR LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS WILL BE
COOLER BY THE COAST OR WHERE INFLUENCED BY STRATUS, WITH HIGHS
VARYING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 305 AM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
LOOKS TO HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT MEANS WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE
A FAIRLY REPETITIVE FORECAST, WITH ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO COOLING
TREND THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
LOOKS TO DIP BACK INTO THE FORECAST MID WEEK, WHICH SHOULD USHER IN
ADDITIONAL COOLING AND POTENTIALLY DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. EXPECT
DAILY CLOUDY NIGHTS AND MORNINGS, WITH CLOUDS RECEDING TO THE COAST
EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM PDT THU JUL 10 2025
IFR AND LIFR CIGS ARE BUILDING ALONG THE COAST AND ARE AFFECTING HAF
AND THE MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS WITH MIST AND DRIZZLE AFFECTING THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND SLIGHTLY INLAND TERMINALS. IFR CIGS ARRIVE AT
APC IN THE LATE NIGHT AND LIFR CIGS AND FOG AFFECT STS INTO THE
MORNING. INCONSISTENT IFR CIGS WILL MOVE AROUND THE SF BAY IN THE
LATE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING, AFFECTING SFO AND OAK. FOG WILL
ALSO FORM AROUND THE MRY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CLEARING BEGINS IN THE
MID MORNING WITH MOST TAF SITES GOING VFR IN THE MID TO LATE
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE HAF, WHICH KEEPS CIGS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS LOOK TO STAY LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING, BUT WILL INCREASE INTO THE LATE MORNING MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO REDUCE INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH IFR/LIFR
CIGS RETURNING TO THE COAST ALONG WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG.
VICINITY OF SFO...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS LAST THROUGH THE LIGHT.
IFR-LEVEL CLOUDS SHIFT THROUGH THE SF BAY IN THE LATE NIGHT, AND
LOOK TO INCONSISTENTLY FILL OVER SFO AND OAK BEFORE EXITING INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. BREEZY WEST WINDS RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING, AND LOOK
TO LAST THROUGH THE MID EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...LIFR CIGS AND LIGHT WINDS LAST THROUGH THE
MID MORNING WITH POCKETS OF MIST AND DRIZZLE AFFECTING VISIBILITIES.
MOMENTS OF FOG ALSO LOOK TO AFFECT MRY. WINDS BECOME MODERATE INTO
MID FRIDAY MORNING AS CIGS ERODE OVER THE TERMINALS, BUT EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO LINGER OVER THE MONTEREY BAY ITSELF UNTIL THE MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS REDUCE INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS IFR/LIFR CIGS
RETURN.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 PM PDT THU JUL 10 2025
STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE MOST HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN PORTION WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE A GENTLE BREEZE WITH MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
A FRESH NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE CONTINUES OVER THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH TODAY. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
BREEZY DIURNAL WINDS ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL REGIONS. MODERATE
SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...BEHRINGER
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