487
FXUS66 KMTR 111138
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
438 AM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 305 AM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
- MODERATE HEATRISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND SOUTH BAY ON FRIDAY
WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND
CENTRAL COAST.
- LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
- GRADUAL COOLING TREND THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 305 AM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PROFILER DATA SHOW THAT THE MARINE LAYER
REMAINS COMPRESSED AROUND 1000 FEET, WITH STRATUS CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL AREAS AND IN THE SALINAS VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TO REMAIN HOLD
WITH STRATUS RETREATING TO THE COAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ANOTHER
WARM AND DRY DAY IS THEN ON TAP, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN
THE UPPER 80S TO 90S FOR MOST INTERIOR LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS WILL BE
COOLER BY THE COAST OR WHERE INFLUENCED BY STRATUS, WITH HIGHS
VARYING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 305 AM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
LOOKS TO HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT MEANS WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE
A FAIRLY REPETITIVE FORECAST, WITH ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO COOLING
TREND THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
LOOKS TO DIP BACK INTO THE FORECAST MID WEEK, WHICH SHOULD USHER IN
ADDITIONAL COOLING AND POTENTIALLY DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. EXPECT
DAILY CLOUDY NIGHTS AND MORNINGS, WITH CLOUDS RECEDING TO THE COAST
EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 426 AM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
ISOLATED IFR AROUND THE BAY AREA AND FAIRLY SOCKED IN ALONG THE
COAST. MOST BAY AREA TERMINALS MAY SEE SOME RELATIVELY BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN CIGS, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE THANKS TO SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WILL AT
LEAST HOLD ON TO SOME STRATUS COVERAGE. IFR CIGS EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH POCKETS OF DZ AND FG.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY IFR STRATUS
LINGERING AROUND THE GOLDEN GATE. LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SEEING SOME STRATUS INVOF OF THE TERMINAL THROUGH
SUNRISE, THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...LIFR CIGS SOCKED IN ALONG THE COAST AND
DOWN THE SALINAS VALLEY. EXPECTING TO CLEAR TO VFR THROUGH 16-18Z
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 PM PDT THU JUL 10 2025
STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE MOST HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN PORTION WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE A GENTLE BREEZE WITH MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...BEHRINGER
MARINE...BEHRINGER
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