890
FXUS66 KMTR 111727
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1027 AM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 305 AM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
- MODERATE HEATRISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND SOUTH BAY ON FRIDAY
WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND
CENTRAL COAST.
- LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
- GRADUAL COOLING TREND THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 841 AM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE MAX T FOR TODAY. BASED ON THE HOW THE
FORECAST DID YESTERDAY, A FEW DEGREE COOLER THAN OBSERVATIONS, AND
BASED ON THE 24 HOUR TEMP CHANGE SO FAR THIS MORNING, RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY, OPTED TO BRING
TODAY'S MAX T UP BY A FEW DEGREE. THESE INCREASES WERE HELD TO
AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND COOL
SSTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN DIRECTLY WATER ADJACENT AREAS MODERATED.
EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT BUMP UP IN TEMP, THERE REMAINS NO NEED FOR
ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY. THAT SAID, LIVERMORE HAD A
MAX T OF 80 ON JULY 8TH AND 99 YESTERDAY. TODAY SHOULD BE ABOUT
THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. A JUMP OF 20 DEGREES IN 2 DAYS CAN TAKE A
TOOL ON THE BODY. TREAT THIS HEAT SERIOUSLY AND STAY HYDRATED AND
OUT OF THE SUN AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 305 AM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PROFILER DATA SHOW THAT THE MARINE LAYER
REMAINS COMPRESSED AROUND 1000 FEET, WITH STRATUS CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL AREAS AND IN THE SALINAS VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TO REMAIN HOLD
WITH STRATUS RETREATING TO THE COAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ANOTHER
WARM AND DRY DAY IS THEN ON TAP, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN
THE UPPER 80S TO 90S FOR MOST INTERIOR LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS WILL BE
COOLER BY THE COAST OR WHERE INFLUENCED BY STRATUS, WITH HIGHS
VARYING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 305 AM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
LOOKS TO HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT MEANS WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE
A FAIRLY REPETITIVE FORECAST, WITH ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO COOLING
TREND THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
LOOKS TO DIP BACK INTO THE FORECAST MID WEEK, WHICH SHOULD USHER IN
ADDITIONAL COOLING AND POTENTIALLY DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. EXPECT
DAILY CLOUDY NIGHTS AND MORNINGS, WITH CLOUDS RECEDING TO THE COAST
EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1026 AM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HAF AND MRY.
VERY SIMILAR FORECAST ON TAP FOR TOMORROW AS WHAT OCCURRED THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE REGION BEGINS TO LOSE THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. AS
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO COOL AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES, MORE
TERMINALS (APC AND STS) CAN EXPECT THE RETURN OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS
TONIGHT AS WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER IS CURRENTLY
BEING OBSERVED AT 1,500 FEET WITH LITTLE VARIATION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES BURNING IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL LIKELY FILTER INTO THE REGION.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH WESTERLY FLOW. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY IFR WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
MRY AND VFR WITH WESTERLY FLOW AT SNS. MRY SHOULD BE ABLE TO SCATTER
OUT SHORTLY, NONETHELESS STRATUS WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE COAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH AN EARLY RETURN OF LIFR CEILINGS
TONIGHT.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1026 AM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS AND ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SUNDAY,
BUT SIMILAR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE, A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
WILL PREVAIL.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...SARMENT
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