456
FXUS66 KMTR 112029
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
129 PM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1242 PM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
- MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR BAY AREA TODAY
- COOL TREND STARTS THIS WEEKEND
- GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH GAPS IN TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON MAY
CAUSE ANY GRASS FIRES TO RUN
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1242 PM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
IT IS REALLY HARD TO CHOOSE ANY OTHER WAYS TO DESCRIBE OUR WEATHER
THAN GOLDILOCKS WEATHER. IT IS SIMPLY JUST RIGHT, AS FAR AS
SUMMER WEATHER GOES. THE AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PILE
OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WITH A NICE EDDY NORTH OF
POINT REYES. THERE'S ALSO A LOW CLOUD FINGER TRYING TO THREAD THE
NEEDLE OF THE GOLDEN GATE, BUT ERODING QUICKLY PAST ANGEL ISLAND
DUE TO WARM AIR. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST SMOKE
FROM THE NOR CAL FIRES IS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AROUND THE BAY AREA.
LOOKING AT FIRE.AIRNOW.GOV, IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE SMOKE IS
REACHING THE GROUND, BUT RATHER THE SUN COMBINING WITH POLLUTANTS
AT THE SURFACE ARE CAUSING MODERATE AIR QUALITY IN POPULATED
AREAS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON,
ALL THE WAY THROUGH 850 HPA, WHICH SHOULD SHOVE THE SMOKE TO THE
EAST, BUT WILL ALSO BRING THE LOW CLOUDS IN.
LOOKING AT BOX AND WHISKER PLOTS AROUND THE AREA, TEMPS TOMORROW
START TO SHOW A COOLING TREND WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT SPREAD ON THE
BOX. THIS GIVES SOME CONFIDENCE THAT MODELS ARE CATCHING ON TO THE
PATTERN WELL. THE CAVEAT IS THAT TEMPS ALOFT DO STAY WARM,
SITTING ON TOP OF THE ONSHORE MARINE PUSH. AS SUCH, MAX T FOR
SATURDAY ABOVE 500 FEET WAS MADE BY BLENDING THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WITH NBM 75TH PERCENTILE. THIS BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES
OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BEYOND THIS, THE PATTERN REMAINS QUIET AND, WELL, GOLDILOCKS
WEATHER LIKE. JUST RIGHT.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1242 PM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
RINSE. LATHER. REPEAT. SUMMERTIME IN THE BAY AREA AND ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST CAN BE REPETITIVE AND THE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK
LOOKS TO BE THAT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR OUR REGION, BUT
A QUASI-PERMENANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE
RIDGE RIGHT OVER THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. THIS MEANS THAT
WE'LL SIT, SURROUNDED BY HEAT, WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND SEASONABLE TO
BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. IF YOU HAVE FRIENDS OR FAMILY THAT
LIVE IN THE OTHER PARTS OF CALIFORNIA, EXPECT A TEXT FROM THEM
SOON ASKING IF THEY CAN COME STAY WITH YOU FOR A BIT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1026 AM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HAF AND MRY.
VERY SIMILAR FORECAST ON TAP FOR TOMORROW AS WHAT OCCURRED THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE REGION BEGINS TO LOSE THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. AS
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO COOL AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES, MORE
TERMINALS (APC AND STS) CAN EXPECT THE RETURN OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS
TONIGHT AS WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER IS CURRENTLY
BEING OBSERVED AT 1,500 FEET WITH LITTLE VARIATION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES BURNING IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL LIKELY FILTER INTO THE REGION.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH WESTERLY FLOW. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY IFR WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
MRY AND VFR WITH WESTERLY FLOW AT SNS. MRY SHOULD BE ABLE TO SCATTER
OUT SHORTLY, NONETHELESS STRATUS WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE COAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH AN EARLY RETURN OF LIFR CEILINGS
TONIGHT.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1026 AM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS AND ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SUNDAY,
BUT SIMILAR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE, A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
WILL PREVAIL.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...BFG
LONG TERM....BFG
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...SARMENT
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