998
FXUS66 KMTR 120409
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
909 PM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1242 PM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
- MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR BAY AREA TODAY
- COOL TREND STARTS THIS WEEKEND
- GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH GAPS IN TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON MAY
CAUSE ANY GRASS FIRES TO RUN
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 903 PM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE COASTLINE SOUTH OF FORT
ROSS, PASSING THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE INTO THE BERKELEY-RICHMOND
AREA, AND EXPANDING THROUGH THE MONTEREY BAY REGION AND DOWN INTO
THE SALINAS VALLEY. HIGH LEVEL SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRES IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MADE FOR SOME BRILLIANT SUNSETS THIS EVENING.
THIS IS DUE TO THE ENHANCED SCATTERING PROVIDED BY SMOKE PARTICLES
IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AS THE SUN SETS, ENHANCING THE RED COLOR
OF THE SUN AS IT SETS TOWARDS THE WEST. FOR NOW, NO CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.
DIALH
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1242 PM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
IT IS REALLY HARD TO CHOOSE ANY OTHER WAYS TO DESCRIBE OUR WEATHER
THAN GOLDILOCKS WEATHER. IT IS SIMPLY JUST RIGHT, AS FAR AS
SUMMER WEATHER GOES. THE AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PILE
OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WITH A NICE EDDY NORTH OF
POINT REYES. THERE'S ALSO A LOW CLOUD FINGER TRYING TO THREAD THE
NEEDLE OF THE GOLDEN GATE, BUT ERODING QUICKLY PAST ANGEL ISLAND
DUE TO WARM AIR. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST SMOKE
FROM THE NOR CAL FIRES IS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AROUND THE BAY AREA.
LOOKING AT FIRE.AIRNOW.GOV, IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE SMOKE IS
REACHING THE GROUND, BUT RATHER THE SUN COMBINING WITH POLLUTANTS
AT THE SURFACE ARE CAUSING MODERATE AIR QUALITY IN POPULATED
AREAS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON,
ALL THE WAY THROUGH 850 HPA, WHICH SHOULD SHOVE THE SMOKE TO THE
EAST, BUT WILL ALSO BRING THE LOW CLOUDS IN.
LOOKING AT BOX AND WHISKER PLOTS AROUND THE AREA, TEMPS TOMORROW
START TO SHOW A COOLING TREND WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT SPREAD ON THE
BOX. THIS GIVES SOME CONFIDENCE THAT MODELS ARE CATCHING ON TO THE
PATTERN WELL. THE CAVEAT IS THAT TEMPS ALOFT DO STAY WARM,
SITTING ON TOP OF THE ONSHORE MARINE PUSH. AS SUCH, MAX T FOR
SATURDAY ABOVE 500 FEET WAS MADE BY BLENDING THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WITH NBM 75TH PERCENTILE. THIS BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES
OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BEYOND THIS, THE PATTERN REMAINS QUIET AND, WELL, GOLDILOCKS
WEATHER LIKE. JUST RIGHT.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1242 PM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
RINSE. LATHER. REPEAT. SUMMERTIME IN THE BAY AREA AND ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST CAN BE REPETITIVE AND THE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK
LOOKS TO BE THAT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR OUR REGION, BUT
A QUASI-PERMENANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE
RIDGE RIGHT OVER THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. THIS MEANS THAT
WE'LL SIT, SURROUNDED BY HEAT, WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND SEASONABLE TO
BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. IF YOU HAVE FRIENDS OR FAMILY THAT
LIVE IN THE OTHER PARTS OF CALIFORNIA, EXPECT A TEXT FROM THEM
SOON ASKING IF THEY CAN COME STAY WITH YOU FOR A BIT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 903 PM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
VICINITY OF SFO...
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 PM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS AND ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE
EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, A GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZE WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...BFG
LONG TERM....BFG
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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