087
FXUS66 KMTR 121111
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
411 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 318 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2025
- A COOLING TREND BEGINS THIS WEEKEND.
- LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 318 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
STRATUS HAS RETURNED AND IS MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING, AS IT CAN
BE SEEN CREEPING INTO THE BAY AREA VALLEYS. EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SEEP INTO THE VALLEYS SOME MORE AND THEN RETREAT BACK TO THE
COAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING. CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD HOLD ALONG OUR
COAST, WHILE SKIES ARE SUNNY FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL SURGE INLAND AGAIN THIS EVENING, WITH
VALLEYS FILLING OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR NEAR SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
INLAND, AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST OR
STUCK UNDERNEATH THE STRATUS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 318 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2025
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
THE FORECAST WILL BE ON REPEAT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL SURROUND MUCH OF THE REGION, BUT A QUASI-PERMENANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE RIGHT OVER THE
BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ONSHORE FLOW AND
COOLER WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 400 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2025
SCATTERED LIFR THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY CLEAR AREAS ACROSS THE
REGION AND FURTHER INLAND. CONFIDENCE ON THE LOWER END FOR
COVERAGE THIS MORNING AROUND THE BAY WITH SOME PATCHY DRY SLOTS.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING TIMES AND CLEAR SKIES TODAY. REDUCED
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE FOR NORTH BAY
TERMINALS.
VICINITY OF SFO...PATCHY LIFR/IFR STRATUS SURROUNDING MOST OF THE
TERMINAL THIS MORNING, BUT ANTICIPATED THAT MOST OF THE IMPACTS
REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL ITSELF. LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE GIVEN THE PATCHY NATURE AND
PROXIMITY OF THE STRATUS COVERAGE, BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
THEREAFTER.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...LIFR THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY
DENSE FG AND -DZ. CONDITIONS LIKELY SLOW TO CLEAR THIS MORNING,
BUT ANTICIPATING VFR BY LATE MORNING. EARLY RETURN OF IFR STRATUS
THIS EVENING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2025
FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZE AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS THROUGH TODAY. GUSTY AFTERNOONS ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS DIMINISH
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, MODERATE SEAS PERSIST.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...BEHRINGER
MARINE...BEHRINGER
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