248
FXUS66 KMTR 121600
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
900 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2025
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 318 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2025
- A COOLING TREND BEGINS THIS WEEKEND.
- LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 859 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2025
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THAT REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. NEAR THE COAST, LOOK FOR LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS AROUND 1,500 FEET IN
DEPTH. AS SUCH, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE 80S
AND 90S, LOCALLY UP TO 100 DEGREES F IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS. NO
UPDATES ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS ON
TRACK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 318 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
STRATUS HAS RETURNED AND IS MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING, AS IT CAN
BE SEEN CREEPING INTO THE BAY AREA VALLEYS. EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SEEP INTO THE VALLEYS SOME MORE AND THEN RETREAT BACK TO THE
COAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING. CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD HOLD ALONG OUR
COAST, WHILE SKIES ARE SUNNY FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL SURGE INLAND AGAIN THIS EVENING, WITH
VALLEYS FILLING OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR NEAR SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
INLAND, AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST OR
STUCK UNDERNEATH THE STRATUS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 318 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2025
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
THE FORECAST WILL BE ON REPEAT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL SURROUND MUCH OF THE REGION, BUT A QUASI-PERMENANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE RIGHT OVER THE
BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ONSHORE FLOW AND
COOLER WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 400 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2025
SCATTERED LIFR THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY CLEAR AREAS ACROSS THE
REGION AND FURTHER INLAND. CONFIDENCE ON THE LOWER END FOR
COVERAGE THIS MORNING AROUND THE BAY WITH SOME PATCHY DRY SLOTS.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING TIMES AND CLEAR SKIES TODAY. REDUCED
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE FOR NORTH BAY
TERMINALS.
VICINITY OF SFO...PATCHY LIFR/IFR STRATUS SURROUNDING MOST OF THE
TERMINAL THIS MORNING, BUT ANTICIPATED THAT MOST OF THE IMPACTS
REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL ITSELF. LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE GIVEN THE PATCHY NATURE AND
PROXIMITY OF THE STRATUS COVERAGE, BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
THEREAFTER.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...LIFR THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY
DENSE FG AND -DZ. CONDITIONS LIKELY SLOW TO CLEAR THIS MORNING,
BUT ANTICIPATING VFR BY LATE MORNING. EARLY RETURN OF IFR STRATUS
THIS EVENING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 859 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCALIZED HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WITH STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES AND VERY
ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 10-60 NM.
UPDATE...RGASS
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...BEHRINGER
MARINE...SARMENT
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