172
FXUS66 KMTR 121717
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1017 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 318 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2025
- A COOLING TREND BEGINS THIS WEEKEND.
- LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 859 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2025
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THAT REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. NEAR THE COAST, LOOK FOR LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS AROUND 1,500 FEET IN
DEPTH. AS SUCH, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE 80S
AND 90S, LOCALLY UP TO 100 DEGREES F IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS. NO
UPDATES ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS ON
TRACK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 318 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
STRATUS HAS RETURNED AND IS MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING, AS IT CAN
BE SEEN CREEPING INTO THE BAY AREA VALLEYS. EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SEEP INTO THE VALLEYS SOME MORE AND THEN RETREAT BACK TO THE
COAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING. CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD HOLD ALONG OUR
COAST, WHILE SKIES ARE SUNNY FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL SURGE INLAND AGAIN THIS EVENING, WITH
VALLEYS FILLING OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR NEAR SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
INLAND, AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST OR
STUCK UNDERNEATH THE STRATUS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 318 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2025
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
THE FORECAST WILL BE ON REPEAT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL SURROUND MUCH OF THE REGION, BUT A QUASI-PERMENANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE RIGHT OVER THE
BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ONSHORE FLOW AND
COOLER WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1016 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2025
CURRENTLY A MIXED BAG OF LIFR-VFR AT THE TERMINALS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN ALL TERMINALS DETERIORATING TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF LVK WHICH ONLY HAS A 20% PROBABILITY. SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES BURNING IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL LIKELY FILTER INTO THE
REGION AND REDUCE SLIGHT RANGE VISIBILITIES.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN ONCE THE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR CEILINGS RETURNING TONIGHT, LIKELY ON THE
CUSP OF IFR/MVFR.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...THE APPROACH STILL HAS SOME LOW STRATUS THIS
MORNING, BUT THAT SHOULD EVAPORATE VERY QUICKLY. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE GAP BY 01Z WITH
VISUALS LIKELY BEING IMPACTED THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY IFR AND CALM AT BOTH TERMINALS.
BOTH TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY WITH STRATUS
STICKING TO THE COAST DURING THE DAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR
CEILINGS RETURNING TO BOTH TERMINALS TONIGHT.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 859 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCALIZED HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WITH STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES AND VERY
ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...SARMENT
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