159
FXUS66 KMTR 130329
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
829 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1243 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 2025
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A MORE NOTABLE COOLING
TREND TO BEGIN TUESDAY OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
- LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 829 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 2025
PRETTY CLASSIC JULY DAY AROUND THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST:
MORNING CLOUDS GAVE WAY TO INLAND SUNSHINE, CLOUDS HUGGED THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND MARINE LAYER IS ALREADY MAKING
ITS WAY BACK INLAND. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH A TIP TOWARD COOLER GIVEN THE
LINGERING COASTAL CLOUDS. DAYTIME HIGHS HAD A LARGE SPREAD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL WITH COASTAL AREAS HOVERING AROUND 60
DEGREES AND INLAND AREAS SOARING INTO THE MID 90S; THIS WAS
ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR MONTEREY COUNTY.
A LAST FEW FRAMES OF THE DAYTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE COASTAL SURGING INLAND, ESPECIALLY UP THE SALINAS VALLEY. FT
ORD PROFILERS PUTS THE DEPTH RIGHT AROUND 1200 FEET. WEBCAMS ABOVE
THE SALINAS VALLEY ALSO SHOW A SOLID PUSH OF CLOUDS MOVING INLAND.
IMPACTS FOR THE RETURN MARINE LAYER WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE.
NO UPDATE NEEDED WITH ONGOING FORECAST. GIVEN THE STAGNANT UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY.
MM
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1243 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
STRATUS HAS RETREATED TO THE COAST AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, YET A
STREAM CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE, HALF MOON BAY, AND
AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY REGION. THIS IS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WHERE WE HAVE POCKETS OF MODERATE HEATRISK,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S AND 90S WITH A FEW OF THE MOST
INTERIOR AREAS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES F.
FOR TONIGHT, LOOK FOR LOW CLOUDS TO PENETRATE BACK INLAND INTO THE
COASTAL VALLEYS WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN REMAINING CLEAR. AS A WARM
AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN THE 60S TO 70S IN THE PEAKS AND HIGHER RIDGELINES.
ELSEWHERE, WITH AROUND A 1500 FOOT MARINE LAYER, TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL DRIZZLE AND/OR MIST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, YET NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH COVERAGE TO PUT IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
FOR SUNDAY, EXPECTING A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE EASING AFTER SUNSET.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1243 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 2025
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
HOLDING STEADY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, OF COURSE WITH THE
TYPICAL DIURNAL TREND. THESE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANYWHERE
BETWEEN 5-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
THE MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN A BIT AS WE MOVE INTO LATE
WEEK WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASE/FURTHER INLAND PENETRATION
OF STRATUS INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS EACH NIGHT. THIS WILL BE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SURROUNDS MOST OF THE REGION, WHILE A QUASI-
PERMANENT SHORTWAVE THROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE ALOFT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 2025
COASTAL STRATUS, PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE /IFR-LIFR/ WILL EXTEND
INLAND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING OTHERWISE VFR. HREF OUTPUT SHOWS
COASTAL STRATUS, PATCHY FOG EXTENDING BACK INLAND ON ONSHORE BREEZES
SUNDAY NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...IT'S A MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST
FOR THE EVENING, THEN LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IFR STRATUS CEILING
FORECAST 07Z THROUGH 17Z-18Z SUNDAY. VFR FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND 15 TO 20 KNOTS UNTIL 07Z
TONIGHT THEN WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS UNTIL LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SUNDAY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...STRATUS /IFR/ MOVING INLAND INTO THE
NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY, THEN PREVAILING STRATUS /IFR/ TONIGHT TO
18Z SUNDAY THEN VFR. MEANWHILE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AT KMRY CONTINUES
TO DOWNSLOPE WITH DRYING AIR PRECLUDING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS EVENING. WINDS GRADUALLY EASING THROUGH THE
EVENING, WHILE INCREASING NIGHT-TIME COOLING WILL BRING BACK STRATUS
/IFR/ AT KMRY TEMPO IFR CEILING 04Z-07Z THIS EVENING, THEN IFR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING TO 17Z-18Z. VFR AT KMRY THEREAFTER
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCALIZED HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
OF STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES AND VERY ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR SF BAY N OF
BAY BRIDGE.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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