329
FXUS66 KMTR 130730
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1230 AM PDT SUN JUL 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1229 AM PDT SUN JUL 13 2025
- TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH A
MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND BEGINNING TUESDAY.
- LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1229 AM PDT SUN JUL 13 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS LAYER BLOOMING INLAND INTO THE
SONOMA COUNTY VALLEYS, THE EAST BAY, SILICON VALLEY, THE MONTEREY
BAY REGION, AND THE SALINAS VALLEY. PROFILERS FROM BODEGA BAY, FORT
ORD, AND POINT SUR ARE DEPICTING A MARINE LAYER AROUND 1500 FT DEEP,
CONDUCIVE TO EXTENSIVE INLAND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT, BEFORE THE CLOUDS RETREAT TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST
DURING THE MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD COMPRESS SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE DAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY RETROGRADING ACROSS
THE STATE, BUT SOME INLAND STRATUS IS STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT.
MORNING LOWS RANGE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS, TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 80S INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 90S OR NEAR 100 EXPECTED AT THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF
MONTEREY AND SALINAS AND PLACES IN THE FAR INTERIOR BAY AREA
ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. ELSEWHERE, THE BAYSHORE SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S, DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO SHOULD RISE
TO NEAR 66, AND THE PACIFIC COAST SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH THROUGH FAVORED GAPS AND
PASSES AND WITHIN THE SALINAS VALLEY.
LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS AREAS ABOVE
AND INLAND OF THE MARINE LAYER'S INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF DRY
DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF AROUND 20-35%, POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF 25-
40%, AND LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN FACTORS BEHIND
THE ELEVATED THREAT. HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE, LEADING
TO THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT BEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN, ESPECIALLY IN THE
FOOTHILLS WHERE LIGHTER WINDS AND GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED EACH NIGHT.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1229 AM PDT SUN JUL 13 2025
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
EXPECT MONDAY TO FEATURE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY. LATE ON
MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, OR PERHAPS A WEAK CUTOFF LOW, DEVELOPS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS TOWARDS THE WEST
AND NORTH AND CAUSING A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY
AND LASTING FOR AT LEAST THE FOLLOWING TWO DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND THE UPPER 60S TO
THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE BAYSHORE, WITH THE COAST REMAINING RATHER
STABLE AT THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE FORECAST BECOMES A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN. ENSEMBLE MODEL CLUSTER ANALYSIS POINTS TO
WEAK RIDGING (I.E. WARMER TEMPERATURES) AND WEAK TROUGHING (I.E.
COOLER TEMPERATURES) BY FRIDAY, WITH THE DIFFERENCES COMPOUNDING
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE FOLLOWING
WEEK, WHEN A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE AND A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WITH THE TWO SCENARIOS HAVING
NEARLY EQUAL PROBABILITIES, THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME TO DEVIATE FROM THE DEFAULT NBM FORECAST, WHICH DEPICTS A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CPC
OUTLOOKS SUGGEST A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARDS TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD (JULY 20-26).
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 2025
COASTAL STRATUS, PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE /IFR-LIFR/ WILL MOVE INLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING OTHERWISE VFR. HREF OUTPUT SHOWS COASTAL
STRATUS, PATCHY FOG EXTENDING BACK INLAND ON ONSHORE BREEZES SUNDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...IT'S A MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST
FOR THE EVENING, THEN LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IFR STRATUS CEILING
FORECAST 07Z THROUGH 17Z-18Z SUNDAY. VFR FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STRATUS RETURNS 10Z MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
WIND 15 TO 20 KNOTS UNTIL 07Z TONIGHT THEN WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS
UNTIL LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SUNDAY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND 15 TO
25 KNOTS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...STRATUS, PATCHY FOG /IFR-LIFR/ MOVING
INLAND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. VFR RETURNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THEN HREF OUTPUT SHOWS STRATUS /IFR/ MOVING INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS EXCEPT GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS
IN THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCALIZED HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
OF STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES AND VERY ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIALH
LONG TERM....DIALH
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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