255
FXUS66 KMTR 141156
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
456 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1210 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2025
- TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH A
MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND BEGINNING TUESDAY.
- LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- SLIGHT WARMING TREND LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1210 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE COASTAL STRATUS LAYER STREAMING INTO
THE SONOMA COUNTY VALLEYS, CURLING FROM THE EAST BAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY, AND BLANKETING THE MONTEREY BAY REGION
AND SALINAS VALLEY. EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL INLAND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING BEFORE THE CLOUDS
RETREAT TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFTER SUNRISE. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WILL FEEL LIKE A BIT OF DEJA VU FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND THE 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE, HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
80S TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 IN THE
WARMEST SPOTS, THE 70S AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE BAYS, AND THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
THROUGH FAVORED GAPS AND PASSES AND WITHIN THE SALINAS VALLEY.
LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS AREAS ABOVE
AND INLAND OF THE MARINE LAYER'S INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF DRY
DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF AROUND 20-35%, POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF 25-
40%, AND LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN FACTORS BEHIND
THE ELEVATED THREAT. HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE, LEADING
TO THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT BEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN, ESPECIALLY IN THE
FOOTHILLS WHERE LIGHTER WINDS AND GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED EACH NIGHT.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1210 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2025
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
LATE TODAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, OR PERHAPS A WEAK CUTOFF LOW,
DEVELOPS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS TOWARDS THE WEST AND NORTH AND CAUSING A
NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND TO BEGIN TOMORROW AND LASTING FOR THE
FOLLOWING TWO DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO
MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE
BAYSHORE, WITH THE COAST REMAINING RATHER STABLE AT THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED HEADING TOWARDS THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE MODEL CLUSTER ANALYSIS DOES FEATURE SCENARIOS
WHERE TROUGHING AND RIDGING DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER, IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER, MOST OF THE IMPACTS FROM ANY DEVIATION IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES, WITH MUTED IMPACTS ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. ALTHOUGH THE
EXACT DETAILS ARE STILL SUBJECT TO VARIATION, THE CURRENT FORECAST
SEES TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS RISING TO THE 80S AND
LOWER 90S, UP TO THE UPPER 90S IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 456 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2025
THOUGH THE FORECAST IS ON REPEAT THIS MORNING, THE STRATUS LOOKS A
BIT MORE FUNKY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY IN TERMS OF APPEARANCE ON
SATELLITE. MOST TERMINALS THIS MORNING ARE SOCKED IN WITH LIFR TO
IFR CIGS AND FEW SITES REPORTING LOWER VISIBILITY LIKELY DUE TO A
MIX OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. THE STRATUS SHOULD RETREAT BACK TO THE COAST
BY MID TO LATE MORNING LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF IFR TO LIFR CIGS IS EXPECTED AS THE MARINE LAYER
SURGES INLAND THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
VICINITY OF SFO...SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS BLANKING THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS STRATUS POTENTIALLY STARTING TO
ERODE BETWEEN 14-17Z. WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO PICK
UP WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25KT BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15KT
BEFORE 6Z, WITH STRATUS LIKELY STARTING TO SLINK IN AROUND THAT TIME
AS WELL. ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CIGS IS EXPECTED.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. START TO SEE IMPROVEMENT BY
THE LATE MORNING AS STRATUS RETREAT MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...EXPECT
CLOUDY, FOGGY, AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING, CIGS GENERALLY
IN THE LIFR CATEGORY. WE SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVEMENT BY THE LATE
MORNING AS STRATUS RETREATS TO THE COAST. LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRATUS CREEPING BACK IN THIS
EVENING. THE FORECAST WILL BE ON REPEAT TONIGHT, LEADING TO LOW CIGS
AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO FOG AND DRIZZLE RETURNING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2025
A WEAK AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY. OTHERWISE
SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE ONSHORE ACROSS THE BAYS. LOCALIZED
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS IN THE FORM OF STRONG NORTHERLY
BREEZES AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL BE PRESENT TODAY AND TUESDAY FOR
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. ASIDE FROM THAT, A GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZE WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT
TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...DIALH
LONG TERM....DIALH
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR
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