715
FXUS66 KMTR 141653
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
953 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1210 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2025
- TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH A
MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND BEGINNING TUESDAY.
- LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- SLIGHT WARMING TREND LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 842 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2025
ONCE AGAIN WE HAD COASTAL DRIZZLE REPORTED AT MANY SITES THIS
MORNING, GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.02". STRATUS WILL RETREAT TO THE
COAST BY LATE MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. MEANWHILE, AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE ARE LIKELY
TO SEE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE RETURNING
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE YESTERDAY. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
WITH NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1210 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE COASTAL STRATUS LAYER STREAMING INTO
THE SONOMA COUNTY VALLEYS, CURLING FROM THE EAST BAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY, AND BLANKETING THE MONTEREY BAY REGION
AND SALINAS VALLEY. EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL INLAND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING BEFORE THE CLOUDS
RETREAT TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFTER SUNRISE. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WILL FEEL LIKE A BIT OF DEJA VU FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND THE 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE, HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
80S TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 IN THE
WARMEST SPOTS, THE 70S AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE BAYS, AND THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
THROUGH FAVORED GAPS AND PASSES AND WITHIN THE SALINAS VALLEY.
LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS AREAS ABOVE
AND INLAND OF THE MARINE LAYER'S INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF DRY
DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF AROUND 20-35%, POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF 25-
40%, AND LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN FACTORS BEHIND
THE ELEVATED THREAT. HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE, LEADING
TO THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT BEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN, ESPECIALLY IN THE
FOOTHILLS WHERE LIGHTER WINDS AND GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED EACH NIGHT.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1210 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2025
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
LATE TODAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, OR PERHAPS A WEAK CUTOFF LOW,
DEVELOPS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS TOWARDS THE WEST AND NORTH AND CAUSING A
NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND TO BEGIN TOMORROW AND LASTING FOR THE
FOLLOWING TWO DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO
MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE
BAYSHORE, WITH THE COAST REMAINING RATHER STABLE AT THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED HEADING TOWARDS THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE MODEL CLUSTER ANALYSIS DOES FEATURE SCENARIOS
WHERE TROUGHING AND RIDGING DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER, IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER, MOST OF THE IMPACTS FROM ANY DEVIATION IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES, WITH MUTED IMPACTS ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. ALTHOUGH THE
EXACT DETAILS ARE STILL SUBJECT TO VARIATION, THE CURRENT FORECAST
SEES TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS RISING TO THE 80S AND
LOWER 90S, UP TO THE UPPER 90S IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 951 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2025
CURRENTLY A MIXED BAG OF LIFR-VFR AT THE TERMINALS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT, THE 1,400 FEET DEEP MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
COASTAL DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED. TONIGHT'S FORECAST COULD BE A CASE
WHERE CEILINGS COME IN LOW AND THEN ACTUALLY RISE THROUGH THE
MORNING. THAT BEING SAID, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL TERMINALS
DETERIORATING TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. WHILE LVK ONLY HAS A
20% CHANCE, A DEEPER MARINE LAYER SHOULD HELP IT GETTING THERE.
SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES BURNING IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL LIKELY
FILTER INTO THE REGION AND REDUCE SLIGHT RANGE VISIBILITIES.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN ONCE THE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR CEILINGS RETURNING TONIGHT, LIKELY ON THE CUSP
OF IFR/MVFR.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...THE APPROACH STILL HAS SOME LOW STRATUS THIS
MORNING, BUT THAT SHOULD EVAPORATE VERY QUICKLY. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE GAP BY 00Z WITH
VISUALS LIKELY BEING IMPACTED THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY VFR AND CALM AT MRY AND IFR AND
CALM AT SNS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR CEILINGS RETURNING TO BOTH
TERMINALS TONIGHT.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 842 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2025
LOCALIZED HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS IN THE FORM OF STRONG
NORTHERLY BREEZES AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH
TOMORROW FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. ASIDE FROM THAT, A GENTLE
TO MODERATE BREEZE WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT
TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...DIALH
LONG TERM....DIALH
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...SARMENT
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